No Arabic abstract
We consider high-dimensional measurement errors with high-frequency data. Our focus is on recovering the covariance matrix of the random errors with optimality. In this problem, not all components of the random vector are observed at the same time and the measurement errors are latent variables, leading to major challenges besides high data dimensionality. We propose a new covariance matrix estimator in this context with appropriate localization and thresholding. By developing a new technical device integrating the high-frequency data feature with the conventional notion of $alpha$-mixing, our analysis successfully accommodates the challenging serial dependence in the measurement errors. Our theoretical analysis establishes the minimax optimal convergence rates associated with two commonly used loss functions. We then establish cases when the proposed localized estimator with thresholding achieves the minimax optimal convergence rates. Considering that the variances and covariances can be small in reality, we conduct a second-order theoretical analysis that further disentangles the dominating bias in the estimator. A bias-corrected estimator is then proposed to ensure its practical finite sample performance. We illustrate the promising empirical performance of the proposed estimator with extensive simulation studies and a real data analysis.
Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order moment assumption for observed log-returns, which cannot account for the heavy tail phenomenon of stock returns. Recently, a robust estimator was developed to handle heavy-tailed distributions with some bounded fourth-moment assumption. However, we often observe that log-returns have heavier tail distribution than the finite fourth-moment and that the degrees of heaviness of tails are heterogeneous over the asset and time period. In this paper, to deal with the heterogeneous heavy-tailed distributions, we develop an adaptive robust integrated volatility estimator that employs pre-averaging and truncation schemes based on jump-diffusion processes. We call this an adaptive robust pre-averaging realized volatility (ARP) estimator. We show that the ARP estimator has a sub-Weibull tail concentration with only finite 2$alpha$-th moments for any $alpha>1$. In addition, we establish matching upper and lower bounds to show that the ARP estimation procedure is optimal. To estimate large integrated volatility matrices using the approximate factor model, the ARP estimator is further regularized using the principal orthogonal complement thresholding (POET) method. The numerical study is conducted to check the finite sample performance of the ARP estimator.
In this paper, we estimate the high dimensional precision matrix under the weak sparsity condition where many entries are nearly zero. We study a Lasso-type method for high dimensional precision matrix estimation and derive general error bounds under the weak sparsity condition. The common irrepresentable condition is relaxed and the results are applicable to the weak sparse matrix. As applications, we study the precision matrix estimation for the heavy-tailed data, the non-paranormal data, and the matrix data with the Lasso-type method.
We consider testing the equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices by carrying out a multi-level thresholding procedure, which is designed to detect sparse and faint differences between the covariances. A novel U-statistic composition is developed to establish the asymptotic distribution of the thresholding statistics in conjunction with the matrix blocking and the coupling techniques. We propose a multi-thresholding test that is shown to be powerful in detecting sparse and weak differences between two covariance matrices. The test is shown to have attractive detection boundary and to attain the optimal minimax rate in the signal strength under different regimes of high dimensionality and the sparsity of the signal. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the utility of the proposed test.
Motivated by establishing theoretical foundations for various manifold learning algorithms, we study the problem of Mahalanobis distance (MD), and the associated precision matrix, estimation from high-dimensional noisy data. By relying on recent transformative results in covariance matrix estimation, we demonstrate the sensitivity of MD~and the associated precision matrix to measurement noise, determining the exact asymptotic signal-to-noise ratio at which MD fails, and quantifying its performance otherwise. In addition, for an appropriate loss function, we propose an asymptotically optimal shrinker, which is shown to be beneficial over the classical implementation of the MD, both analytically and in simulations. The result is extended to the manifold setup, where the nonlinear interaction between curvature and high-dimensional noise is taken care of. The developed solution is applied to study a multiscale reduction problem in the dynamical system analysis.
In this article, we consider the sparse tensor singular value decomposition, which aims for dimension reduction on high-dimensional high-order data with certain sparsity structure. A method named Sparse Tensor Alternating Thresholding for Singular Value Decomposition (STAT-SVD) is proposed. The proposed procedure features a novel double projection & thresholding scheme, which provides a sharp criterion for thresholding in each iteration. Compared with regular tensor SVD model, STAT-SVD permits more robust estimation under weaker assumptions. Both the upper and lower bounds for estimation accuracy are developed. The proposed procedure is shown to be minimax rate-optimal in a general class of situations. Simulation studies show that STAT-SVD performs well under a variety of configurations. We also illustrate the merits of the proposed procedure on a longitudinal tensor dataset on European country mortality rates.