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Register a new userDo Deep Generative Models Know What They Dont Know?
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A neural network deployed in the wild may be asked to make predictions for inputs that were drawn from a different distribution than that of the training data. A plethora of work has demonstrated that it is easy to find or synthesize inputs for which a neural network is highly confident yet wrong. Generative models are widely viewed to be robust to such mistaken confidence as modeling the density of the input features can be used to detect novel, out-of-distribution inputs. In this paper we challenge this assumption. We find that the density learned by flow-based models, VAEs, and PixelCNNs cannot distinguish images of common objects such as dogs, trucks, and horses (i.e. CIFAR-10) from those of house numbers (i.e. SVHN), assigning a higher likelihood to the latter when the model is trained on the former. Moreover, we find evidence of this phenomenon when pairing several popular image data sets: FashionMNIST vs MNIST, CelebA vs SVHN, ImageNet vs CIFAR-10 / CIFAR-100 / SVHN. To investigate this curious behavior, we focus analysis on flow-based generative models in particular since they are trained and evaluated via the exact marginal likelihood. We find such behavior persists even when we restrict the flows to constant-volume transformations. These transformations admit some theoretical analysis, and we show that the difference in likelihoods can be explained by the location and variances of the data and the model curvature. Our results caution against using the density estimates from deep generative models to identify inputs similar to the training distribution until their behavior for out-of-distribution inputs is better understood.
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Deep generative models have been demonstrated as state-of-the-art density estimators. Yet, recent work has found that they often assign a higher likelihood to data from outside the training distribution. This seemingly paradoxical behavior has caused concerns over the quality of the attained density estimates. In the context of hierarchical variational autoencoders, we provide evidence to explain this behavior by out-of-distribution data having in-distribution low-level features. We argue that this is both expected and desirable behavior. With this insight in hand, we develop a fast, scalable and fully unsupervised likelihood-ratio score for OOD detection that requires data to be in-distribution across all feature-levels. We benchmark the method on a vast set of data and model combinations and achieve state-of-the-art results on out-of-distribution detection.
Extractive reading comprehension systems can often locate the correct answer to a question in a context document, but they also tend to make unreliable guesses on questions for which the correct answer is not stated in the context. Existing datasets either focus exclusively on answerable questions, or use automatically generated unanswerable questions that are easy to identify. To address these weaknesses, we present SQuAD 2.0, the latest version of the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD). SQuAD 2.0 combines existing SQuAD data with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD 2.0, systems must not only answer questions when possible, but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. SQuAD 2.0 is a challenging natural language understanding task for existing models: a strong neural system that gets 86% F1 on SQuAD 1.1 achieves only 66% F1 on SQuAD 2.0.
Recent work has presented intriguing results examining the knowledge contained in language models (LM) by having the LM fill in the blanks of prompts such as Obama is a _ by profession. These prompts are usually manually created, and quite possibly sub-optimal; another prompt such as Obama worked as a _ may result in more accurately predicting the correct profession. Because of this, given an inappropriate prompt, we might fail to retrieve facts that the LM does know, and thus any given prompt only provides a lower bound estimate of the knowledge contained in an LM. In this paper, we attempt to more accurately estimate the knowledge contained in LMs by automatically discovering better prompts to use in this querying process. Specifically, we propose mining-based and paraphrasing-based methods to automatically generate high-quality and diverse prompts, as well as ensemble methods to combine answers from different prompts. Extensive experiments on the LAMA benchmark for extracting relational knowledge from LMs demonstrate that our methods can improve accuracy from 31.1% to 39.6%, providing a tighter lower bound on what LMs know. We have released the code and the resulting LM Prompt And Query Archive (LPAQA) at https://github.com/jzbjyb/LPAQA.
String theory has transformed our understanding of geometry, topology and spacetime. Thus, for this special issue of Foundations of Physics commemorating Forty Years of String Theory, it seems appropriate to step back and ask what we do not understand. As I will discuss, time remains the least understood concept in physical theory. While we have made significant progress in understanding space, our understanding of time has not progressed much beyond the level of a century ago when Einstein introduced the idea of space-time as a combined entity. Thus, I will raise a series of open questions about time, and will review some of the progress that has been made as a roadmap for the future.
There has been recent interest in improving performance of simple models for multiple reasons such as interpretability, robust learning from small data, deployment in memory constrained settings as well as environmental considerations. In this paper, we propose a novel method SRatio that can utilize information from high performing complex models (viz. deep neural networks, boosted trees, random forests) to reweight a training dataset for a potentially low performing simple model of much lower complexity such as a decision tree or a shallow network enhancing its performance. Our method also leverages the per sample hardness estimate of the simple model which is not the case with the prior works which primarily consider the complex models confidences/predictions and is thus conceptually novel. Moreover, we generalize and formalize the concept of attaching probes to intermediate layers of a neural network to other commonly used classifiers and incorporate this into our method. The benefit of these contributions is witnessed in the experiments where on 6 UCI datasets and CIFAR-10 we outperform competitors in a majority (16 out of 27) of the cases and tie for best performance in the remaining cases. In fact, in a couple of cases, we even approach the complex models performance. We also conduct further experiments to validate assertions and intuitively understand why our method works. Theoretically, we motivate our approach by showing that the weighted loss minimized by simple models using our weighting upper bounds the loss of the complex model.
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