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Register a new userEddington bias for cosmic neutrino sources
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Added by
Nora Linn Strotjohann
Publication date
2018
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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We describe a consequence of the Eddington bias which occurs when a single astrophysical neutrino event is used to infer the neutrino flux of the source. A trial factor is introduced by the potentially large number of similar sources that remain undetected; if this factor is not accounted for the luminosity of the observed source can be overestimated by several orders of magnitude. Based on the resulting unrealistically high neutrino fluxes, associations between high-energy neutrinos and potential counterparts or emission scenarios were rejected in the past. Correcting for the bias might justify a reevaluation of these cases.
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We investigate the capability of the Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA) in performing Target-of-Opportunity (ToO) neutrino observations. POEMMA will detect tau neutrinos via Cherenkov radiation from their upward-moving extensive air showers. POEMMA will be able to quickly slew ($90^{circ}$ in 500 s) to the direction of an astrophysical source, which in combination with its orbital speed will provide it with unparalleled capability to follow up transient alerts. We calculate POEMMAs transient sensitivity for two observational modes for its two satellites (ToO-stereo and ToO-dual) and investigate variations in neutrino sensitivity across the sky arising from POEMMAs orbit. We explore separate scenarios for long ($sim 10^{6}$ s) and short ($sim 10^3$ s) bursts, accounting for intrusion from the Sun and the Moon in long-duration scenarios. For long bursts, POEMMA will improve the average neutrino sensitivity above 300 PeV by up to a factor of 7 with respect to existing experiments (e.g., IceCube, ANTARES, and Pierre Auger), reaching the level of model predictions for neutrino fluences at these energies from several types of long-duration astrophysical transients (e.g., binary neutron star mergers and tidal disruption events). For short bursts in the optimal case, POEMMA will improve the sensitivity over existing experiments by at least an order of magnitude above 100 PeV. POEMMAs orbit and rapid slewing will provide access to the full celestial sky, including regions not accessible to ground-based experiments. Finally, we discuss the prospects for detecting neutrinos from candidate astrophysical neutrino sources in the nearby universe. Our results demonstrate that with its improved neutrino sensitivity at ultra-high energies and unique full-sky coverage, POEMMA will be an essential component in an expanding multi-messenger network.
The origin of cosmic neutrinos is still largely unknown. Using data obtained by the gamma-ray imager on board of the AGILE satellite, we systematically searched for transient gamma-ray sources above 100 MeV that are temporally and spatially coincident with ten recent high-energy neutrino IceCube events. We find three AGILE candidate sources that can be considered possible counterparts to neutrino events. Detecting 3 gamma-ray/neutrino associations out of 10 IceCube events is shown to be unlikely due to a chance coincidence. One of the sources is related to the BL Lac source TXS 0506+056. For the other two AGILE gamma-ray sources there are no obvious known counterparts, and both Galactic and extragalactic origin should be considered.
Results are presented of a search for cosmic sources of high energy neutrinos with the ANTARES neutrino telescope. The data were collected during 2007 and 2008 using detector configurations containing between 5 and 12 detection lines. The integrated live time of the analyzed data is 304 days. Muon tracks are reconstructed using a likelihood-based algorithm. Studies of the detector timing indicate a median angular resolution of 0.5 +/- 0.1 degrees. The neutrino flux sensitivity is 7.5 x 10-8 ~ (E/GeV)^-2 GeV^-1 s^-1 cm^-2 for the part of the sky that is always visible (declination < -48 degrees), which is better than limits obtained by previous experiments. No cosmic neutrino sources have been observed.
A novel method to analyse the spatial distribution of neutrino candidates recorded with the ANTARES neutrino telescope is introduced, searching for an excess of neutrinos in a region of arbitrary size and shape from any direction in the sky. Techniques originating from the domains of machine learning, pattern recognition and image processing are used to purify the sample of neutrino candidates and for the analysis of the obtained skymap. In contrast to a dedicated search for a specific neutrino emission model, this approach is sensitive to a wide range of possible morphologies of potential sources of high-energy neutrino emission. The application of these methods to ANTARES data yields a large-scale excess with a post-trial significance of 2.5$sigma$. Applied to public data from IceCube in its IC40 configuration, an excess consistent with the results from ANTARES is observed with a post-trial significance of 2.1$sigma$.
We present results of an archival coincidence analysis between Fermi LAT gamma-ray data and public neutrino data from the IceCube neutrino observatorys 40-string (IC40) and 59-string (IC59) observing runs. Our analysis has the potential to detect either a statistical excess of neutrino + gamma-ray ($ u$+$gamma$) emitting transients or, alternatively, individual high gamma-multiplicity events, as might be produced by a neutrino observed by IceCube coinciding with a LAT-detected gamma-ray burst. Dividing the neutrino data into three datasets by hemisphere (IC40, IC59-North, and IC59-South), we construct uncorrelated null distributions by Monte Carlo scrambling of the neutrino datasets. We carry out signal-injection studies against these null distributions, demonstrating sensitivity to individual $ u$+$gamma$ events of sufficient gamma-ray multiplicity, and to $ u$+$gamma$ transient populations responsible for $>$14% (IC40), $>$9% (IC59-North), or $>$8% (IC59-South) of the gamma-coincident neutrinos observed in these datasets, respectively. Analyzing the unscrambled neutrino data, we identify no individual high-significance neutrino + high gamma-multiplicity events, and no significant deviations from the test statistic null distributions. However, we observe a similar and unexpected pattern in the IC59-North and IC59-South residual distributions that we conclude reflects a possible correlation ($p=7.0%$) between IC59 neutrino positions and persistently bright portions of the Fermi gamma-ray sky. This possible correlation should be readily testable using eight years of further data already collected by IceCube. We are currently working with Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network (AMON) partner facilities to generate low-latency $ u$+$gamma$ alerts from Fermi LAT gamma-ray, IceCube and ANTARES neutrino data and distribute these in real time to AMON follow-up partners.
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