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Register a new userThe ARMA Point Process and its Estimation
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Added by
Spencer Wheatley Dr.
Publication date
2018
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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We introduce the ARMA (autoregressive-moving-average) point process, which is a Hawkes process driven by a Neyman-Scott process with Poisson immigration. It contains both the Hawkes and Neyman-Scott process as special cases and naturally combines self-exciting and shot-noise cluster mechanisms, useful in a variety of applications. The name ARMA is used because the ARMA point process is an appropriate analogue of the ARMA time series model for integer-valued series. As such, the ARMA point process framework accommodates a flexible family of models sharing methodological and mathematical similarities with ARMA time series. We derive an estimation procedure for ARMA point processes, as well as the integer ARMA models, based on an MCEM (Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization) algorithm. This powerful framework for estimation accommodates trends in immigration, multiple parametric specifications of excitement functions, as well as cases where marks and immigrants are not observed.
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This article aims to introduced a new lifetime distribution named as exponentiated xgamma distribution (EXGD). The new generalization obtained from xgamma distribution, a special finite mixture of exponential and gamma distributions. The proposed model is very flexible and positively skewed. Different statistical properties of the proposed model, viz., reliability characteristics, moments, generating function, mean deviation, quantile function, conditional moments, order statistics, reliability curves and indices and random variate generation etc. have been derived. The estimation of the of the survival and hazard rate functions of the EXGD has been approached by different methods estimation, viz., moment estimate (ME),maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), ordinary least square and weighted least square estimates (LSE and WLSE), Cram`er-von-Mises estimate (CME) and maximum product spacing estimate (MPSE). At last, one medical data set has been used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model in real life scenario.
We present a short proof of the fact that the exponential decay rate of partial autocorrelation coefficients of a short-memory process, in particular an ARMA process, is equal to the exponential decay rate of the coefficients of its infinite autoregressive representation.
This paper is devoted to the estimation of the common marginal density function of weakly dependent processes. The accuracy of estimation is measured using pointwise risks. We propose a datadriven procedure using kernel rules. The bandwidth is selected using the approach of Goldenshluger and Lepski and we prove that the resulting estimator satisfies an oracle type inequality. The procedure is also proved to be adaptive (in a minimax framework) over a scale of Holder balls for several types of dependence: stong mixing processes, $lambda$-dependent processes or i.i.d. sequences can be considered using a single procedure of estimation. Some simulations illustrate the performance of the proposed method.
In this paper we consider an ergodic diffusion process with jumps whose drift coefficient depends on an unknown parameter $theta$. We suppose that the process is discretely observed at the instants (t n i)i=0,...,n with $Delta$n = sup i=0,...,n--1 (t n i+1 -- t n i) $rightarrow$ 0. We introduce an estimator of $theta$, based on a contrast function, which is efficient without requiring any conditions on the rate at which $Delta$n $rightarrow$ 0, and where we allow the observed process to have non summable jumps. This extends earlier results where the condition n$Delta$ 3 n $rightarrow$ 0 was needed (see [10],[24]) and where the process was supposed to have summable jumps. Moreover, in the case of a finite jump activity, we propose explicit approximations of the contrast function, such that the efficient estimation of $theta$ is feasible under the condition that n$Delta$ k n $rightarrow$ 0 where k > 0 can be arbitrarily large. This extends the results obtained by Kessler [15] in the case of continuous processes. L{e}vy-driven SDE, efficient drift estimation, high frequency data, ergodic properties, thresholding methods.
We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic approximations of the mean and variance of this estimator, together with asymptotic normality results, for a large class of Gaussian processes. We allow for general mean functions and study the aggregation of several estimators based on various variation sequences. In extensive simulation studies, we show that the asymptotic results accurately depict thefinite-sample situations already for small to moderate sample sizes. We also compare various variation sequences and highlight the efficiency of the aggregation procedure.
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