The paper tackles the unsupervised estimation of the effective dimension of a sample of dependent random vectors. The proposed method uses the principal components (PC) decomposition of sample covariance to establish a low-rank approximation that helps uncover the hidden structure. The number of PCs to be included in the decomposition is determined via a Probabilistic Principal Components Analysis (PPCA) embedded in a penalized profile likelihood criterion. The choice of penalty parameter is guided by a data-driven procedure that is justified via analytical derivations and extensive finite sample simulations. Application of the proposed penalized PPCA is illustrated with three gene expression datasets in which the number of cancer subtypes is estimated from all expression measurements. The analyses point towards hidden structures in the data, e.g. additional subgroups, that could be of scientific interest.
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