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Register a new userHow often does the best team win? A unified approach to understanding randomness in North American sport
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Michael Lopez
Publication date
2017
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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Statistical applications in sports have long centered on how to best separate signal (e.g. team talent) from random noise. However, most of this work has concentrated on a single sport, and the development of meaningful cross-sport comparisons has been impeded by the difficulty of translating luck from one sport to another. In this manuscript, we develop Bayesian state-space models using betting market data that can be uniformly applied across sporting organizations to better understand the role of randomness in game outcomes. These models can be used to extract estimates of team strength, the between-season, within-season, and game-to-game variability of team strengths, as well each teams home advantage. We implement our approach across a decade of play in each of the National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), National Basketball Association (NBA), and Major League Baseball (MLB), finding that the NBA demonstrates both the largest dispersion in talent and the largest home advantage, while the NHL and MLB stand out for their relative randomness in game outcomes. We conclude by proposing new metrics for judging competitiveness across sports leagues, both within the regular season and using traditional postseason tournament formats. Although we focus on sports, we discuss a number of other situations in which our generalizable models might be usefully applied.
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Ice sheet models are used to study the deglaciation of North America at the end of the last ice age (past 21,000 years), so that we might understand whether and how existing ice sheets may reduce or disappear under climate change. Though ice sheet models have a few parameters controlling physical behaviour of the ice mass, they also require boundary conditions for climate (spatio-temporal fields of temperature and precipitation, typically on regular grids and at monthly intervals). The behaviour of the ice sheet is highly sensitive to these fields, and there is relatively little data from geological records to constrain them as the land was covered with ice. We develop a methodology for generating a range of plausible boundary conditions, using a low-dimensional basis representation of the spatio-temporal input. We derive this basis by combining key patterns, extracted from a small ensemble of climate model simulations of the deglaciation, with sparse spatio-temporal observations. By jointly varying the ice sheet parameters and basis vector coefficients, we run ensembles of the Glimmer ice sheet model that simultaneously explore both climate and ice sheet model uncertainties. We use these to calibrate the ice sheet physics and boundary conditions for Glimmer, by ruling out regions of the joint coefficient and parameter space via history matching. We use binary ice/no ice observations from reconstructions of past ice sheet margin position to constrain this space by introducing a novel metric for history matching to binary data.
Locally checkable labeling problems (LCLs) are distributed graph problems in which a solution is globally feasible if it is locally feasible in all constant-radius neighborhoods. Vertex colorings, maximal independent sets, and maximal matchings are examples of LCLs. On the one hand, it is known that some LCLs benefit exponentially from randomness---for example, any deterministic distributed algorithm that finds a sinkless orientation requires $Theta(log n)$ rounds in the LOCAL model, while the randomized complexity of the problem is $Theta(log log n)$ rounds. On the other hand, there are also many LCLs in which randomness is useless. Previously, it was not known if there are any LCLs that benefit from randomness, but only subexponentially. We show that such problems exist: for example, there is an LCL with deterministic complexity $Theta(log^2 n)$ rounds and randomized complexity $Theta(log n log log n)$ rounds.
We present a unified approach to improved $L^p$ Hardy inequalities in $R^N$. We consider Hardy potentials that involve either the distance from a point, or the distance from the boundary, or even the intermediate case where distance is taken from a surface of codimension $1<k<N$. In our main result we add to the right hand side of the classical Hardy inequality, a weighted $L^p$ norm with optimal weight and best constant. We also prove non-homogeneous improved Hardy inequalities, where the right hand side involves weighted L^q norms, q eq p.
We introduce the {Destructive Object Handling} (DOH) problem, which models aspects of many real-world allocation problems, such as shipping explosive munitions, scheduling processes in a cluster with fragile nodes, re-using passwords across multiple websites, and quarantining patients during a disease outbreak. In these problems, objects must be assigned to handlers, but each object has a probability of destroying itself and all the other objects allocated to the same handler. The goal is to maximize the expected value of the objects handled successfully. We show that finding the optimal allocation is $mathsf{NP}$-$mathsf{complete}$, even if all the handlers are identical. We present an FPTAS when the number of handlers is constant. We note in passing that the same technique also yields a first FPTAS for the weapons-target allocation problem cite{manne_wta} with a constant number of targets. We study the structure of DOH problems and find that they have a sort of phase transition -- in some instances it is better to spread risk evenly among the handlers, in others, one handler should be used as a ``sacrificial lamb. We show that the problem is solvable in polynomial time if the destruction probabilities depend only on the handler to which an object is assigned; if all the handlers are identical and the objects all have the same value; or if each handler can be assigned at most one object. Finally, we empirically evaluate several heuristics based on a combination of greedy and genetic algorithms. The proposed heuristics return fairly high quality solutions to very large problem instances (upto 250 objects and 100 handlers) in tens of seconds.
Our aim is to experimentally study the possibility of distinguishing between quantum sources of randomness--recently proved to be theoretically incomputable--and some well-known computable sources of pseudo-randomness. Incomputability is a necessary, but not sufficient symptom of true randomness. We base our experimental approach on algorithmic information theory which provides characterizations of algorithmic random sequences in terms of the degrees of incompressibility of their finite prefixes. Algorithmic random sequences are incomputable, but the converse implication is false. We have performed tests of randomness on pseudo-random strings (finite sequences) of length $2^{32}$ generated with software (Mathematica, Maple), which are cyclic (so, strongly computable), the bits of $pi$, which is computable, but not cyclic, and strings produced by quantum measurements (with the commercial device Quantis and by the Vienna IQOQI group). Our empirical tests indicate quantitative differences, some statistically significant, between computable and incomputable sources of randomness.
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