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A forward diffusion equation describing the evolution of the allele frequency spectrum is presented. The influx of mutations is accounted for by imposing a suitable boundary condition. For a Wright-Fisher diffusion with or without selection and varying population size, the boundary condition is $lim_{x downarrow 0} x f(x,t)=theta rho(t)$, where $f(cdot,t)$ is the frequency spectrum of derived alleles at independent loci at time $t$ and $rho(t)$ is the relative population size at time $t$. When population size and selection intensity are independent of time, the forward equation is equivalent to the backwards diffusion usually used to derive the frequency spectrum, but the forward equation allows computation of the time dependence of the spectrum both before an equilibrium is attained and when population size and selection intensity vary with time. From the diffusion equation, we derive a set of ordinary differential equations for the moments of $f(cdot,t)$ and express the expected spectrum of a finite sample in terms of those moments. We illustrate the use of the forward equation by considering neutral and selected alleles in a highly simplified model of human history. For example, we show that approximately 30% of the expected heterozygosity of neutral loci is attributable to mutations that arose since the onset of population growth in roughly the last $150,000$ years.
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Our models for detecting the effect of adaptation on population genomic diversity are often predicated on a single newly arisen mutation sweeping rapidly to fixation. However, a population can also adapt to a new situation by multiple mutations of similar phenotypic effect that arise in parallel. These mutations can each quickly reach intermediate frequency, preventing any single one from rapidly sweeping to fixation globally (a soft sweep). Here we study models of parallel mutation in a geographically spread population adapting to a global selection pressure. The slow geographic spread of a selected allele can allow other selected alleles to arise and spread elsewhere in the species range. When these different selected alleles meet, their spread can slow dramatically, and so form a geographic patchwork which could be mistaken for a signal of local adaptation. This random spatial tessellation will dissipate over time due to mixing by migration, leaving a set of partial sweeps within the global population. We show that the spatial tessellation initially formed by mutational types is closely connected to Poisson process models of crystallization, which we extend. We find that the probability of parallel mutation and the spatial scale on which parallel mutation occurs is captured by a single characteristic length that reflects the expected distance a spreading allele travels before it encounters a different spreading allele. This characteristic length depends on the mutation rate, the dispersal parameter, the effective local density of individuals, and to a much lesser extent the strength of selection. We argue that even in widely dispersing species, such parallel geographic sweeps may be surprisingly common. Thus, we predict, as more data becomes available, many more examples of intra-species parallel adaptation will be uncovered.
The advent of accessible ancient DNA technology now allows the direct ascertainment of allele frequencies in ancestral populations, thereby enabling the use of allele frequency time series to detect and estimate natural selection. Such direct observations of allele frequency dynamics are expected to be more powerful than inferences made using patterns of linked neutral variation obtained from modern individuals. We develop a Bayesian method to make use of allele frequency time series data and infer the parameters of general diploid selection, along with allele age, in non-equilibrium populations. We introduce a novel path augmentation approach, in which we use Markov chain Monte Carlo to integrate over the space of allele frequency trajectories consistent with the observed data. Using simulations, we show that this approach has good power to estimate selection coefficients and allele age. Moreover, when applying our approach to data on horse coat color, we find that ignoring a relevant demographic history can significantly bias the results of inference. Our approach is made available in a C++ software package.
Biological systems are typically highly open, non-equilibrium systems that are very challenging to understand from a statistical mechanics perspective. While statistical treatments of evolutionary biological systems have a long and rich history, examination of the time-dependent non-equilibrium dynamics has been less studied. In this paper we first derive a generalized master equation in the genotype space for diploid organisms incorporating the processes of selection, mutation, recombination, and reproduction. The master equation is defined in terms of continuous time and can handle an arbitrary number of gene loci and alleles, and can be defined in terms of an absolute population or probabilities. We examine and analytically solve several prototypical cases which illustrate the interplay of the various processes and discuss the timescales of their evolution. The entropy production during the evolution towards steady state is calculated and we find that it agrees with predictions from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics where it is large when the population distribution evolves towards a more viable genotype. The stability of the non-equilibrium steady state is confirmed using the Glansdorff-Prigogine criterion.
How natural selection acts to limit the proliferation of transposable elements (TEs) in genomes has been of interest to evolutionary biologists for many years. To describe TE dynamics in populations, many previous studies have used models of transposition-selection equilibrium that rely on the assumption of a constant rate of transposition. However, since TE invasions are known to happen in bursts through time, this assumption may not be reasonable in natural populations. Here we propose a test of neutrality for TE insertions that does not rely on the assumption of a constant transposition rate. We consider the case of TE insertions that have been ascertained from a single haploid reference genome sequence and have subsequently had their allele frequency estimated in a population sample. By conditioning on the age of an individual TE insertion (using information contained in the number of substitutions that have occurred within the TE sequence since insertion), we determine the probability distribution for the insertion allele frequency in a population sample under neutrality. Taking models of varying population size into account, we then evaluate predictions of our model against allele frequency data from 190 retrotransposon insertions sampled from North American and African populations of Drosophila melanogaster. Using this non-equilibrium model, we are able to explain about 80% of the variance in TE insertion allele frequencies based on age alone. Controlling both for nonequilibrium dynamics of transposition and host demography, we provide evidence for negative selection acting against most TEs as well as for positive selection acting on a small subset of TEs. Our work establishes a new framework for the analysis of the evolutionary forces governing large insertion mutations like TEs, gene duplications or other copy number variants.
The introduction and persistence of novel sexually antagonistic alleles can depend upon factors that differ between males and females. Understanding the conditions for invasion in a two-locus model can elucidate these processes. For instance, selection can act differently upon the sexes, or sex-linkage can facilitate the invasion of genetic variation with opposing fitness effects between the sexes. Two factors that deserve further attention are recombination rates and allele frequencies -- both of which can vary substantially between the sexes. We find that sex-specific recombination rates in a two-locus diploid model can affect the invasion outcome of sexually antagonistic alleles and that the sex-averaged recombination rate is not necessarily sufficient to predict invasion. We confirm that the range of permissible recombination rates is smaller in the sex benefitting from invasion and larger in the sex harmed by invasion. However, within the invasion space, male recombination rate can be greater than, equal to, or less than female recombination rate in order for a male-benefit, female-detriment allele to invade (and similarly for a female-benefit, male-detriment allele). We further show that a novel, sexually antagonistic allele that is also associated with a lowered recombination rate can invade more easily when present in the double heterozygote genotype. Finally, we find that sexual dimorphism in resident allele frequencies can impact the invasion of new sexually antagonistic alleles at a second locus. Our results suggest that accounting for sex-specific recombination rates and allele frequencies can determine the difference between invasion and non-invasion of novel sexually antagonistic alleles in a two-locus model.
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