We test the predictive power of first-oder reversal curve (FORC) diagrams using simulations of random magnets. In particular, we compute a histogram of the switching fields of the underlying microscopic switching units along the major hysteresis loop, and compare to the corresponding FORC diagram. We find qualitative agreement between the switching-field histogram and the FORC diagram, yet differences are noticeable. We discuss possible sources for these differences and present results for frustrated systems where the discrepancies are more pronounced.