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Register a new userMinimizing the Risk of Spreading Processes via Surveillance Schedules and Sparse Control
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In this paper, we propose an optimization framework that combines surveillance schedules and sparse control to bound the risk of spreading processes such as epidemics and wildfires. Here, risk is considered the risk of an undetected outbreak, i.e. the product of the probability of an outbreak and the impact of that outbreak, and we can bound or minimize the risk by resource allocation and persistent monitoring schedules. The presented framework utilizes the properties of positive systems and convex optimization to provide scalable algorithms for both surveillance and intervention purposes. We demonstrate with different spreading process examples how the method can incorporate different parameters and scenarios such as a vaccination strategy for epidemics and the effect of vegetation, wind and outbreak rate on a wildfire in persistent monitoring scenarios.
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This paper presents a control reconfiguration approach to improve the performance of two classes of dynamical systems. Motivated by recent research on re-engineering cyber-physical systems, we propose a three-step control retrofit procedure. First, we reverse-engineer a dynamical system to dig out an optimization problem it actually solves. Second, we forward-engineer the system by applying a corresponding faster algorithm to solve this optimization problem. Finally, by comparing the original and accelerated dynamics, we obtain the implementation of the redesigned part (the extra dynamics). As a result, the convergence rate/speed or transient behavior of the given system can be improved while the system control structure is maintained. Internet congestion control and distributed proportional-integral (PI) control, as applications in the two different classes of target systems, are used to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
The standard approach to risk-averse control is to use the Exponential Utility (EU) functional, which has been studied for several decades. Like other risk-averse utility functionals, EU encodes risk aversion through an increasing convex mapping $varphi$ of objective costs to subjective costs. An objective cost is a realization $y$ of a random variable $Y$. In contrast, a subjective cost is a realization $varphi(y)$ of a random variable $varphi(Y)$ that has been transformed to measure preferences about the outcomes. For EU, the transformation is $varphi(y) = exp(frac{-theta}{2}y)$, and under certain conditions, the quantity $varphi^{-1}(E(varphi(Y)))$ can be approximated by a linear combination of the mean and variance of $Y$. More recently, there has been growing interest in risk-averse control using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) functional. In contrast to the EU functional, the CVaR of a random variable $Y$ concerns a fraction of its possible realizations. If $Y$ is a continuous random variable with finite $E(|Y|)$, then the CVaR of $Y$ at level $alpha$ is the expectation of $Y$ in the $alpha cdot 100 %$ worst cases. Here, we study the applications of risk-averse functionals to controller synthesis and safety analysis through the development of numerical examples, with emphasis on EU and CVaR. Our contribution is to examine the decision-theoretic, mathematical, and computational trade-offs that arise when using EU and CVaR for optimal control and safety analysis. We are hopeful that this work will advance the interpretability and elucidate the potential benefits of risk-averse control technology.
In this paper, we introduce the notion of periodic safety, which requires that the system trajectories periodically visit a subset of a forward-invariant safe set, and utilize it in a multi-rate framework where a high-level planner generates a reference trajectory that is tracked by a low-level controller under input constraints. We introduce the notion of fixed-time barrier functions which is leveraged by the proposed low-level controller in a quadratic programming framework. Then, we design a model predictive control policy for high-level planning with a bound on the rate of change for the reference trajectory to guarantee that periodic safety is achieved. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy on a simulation example, where the proposed fixed-time stabilizing low-level controller shows successful satisfaction of control objectives, whereas an exponentially stabilizing low-level controller fails.
We propose a new risk-constrained reformulation of the standard Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) problem. Our framework is motivated by the fact that the classical (risk-neutral) LQR controller, although optimal in expectation, might be ineffective under relatively infrequent, yet statistically significant (risky) events. To effectively trade between average and extreme event performance, we introduce a new risk constraint, which explicitly restricts the total expected predictive variance of the state penalty by a user-prescribed level. We show that, under rather minimal conditions on the process noise (i.e., finite fourth-order moments), the optimal risk-aware controller can be evaluated explicitly and in closed form. In fact, it is affine relative to the state, and is always internally stable regardless of parameter tuning. Our new risk-aware controller: i) pushes the state away from directions where the noise exhibits heavy tails, by exploiting the third-order moment (skewness) of the noise; ii) inflates the state penalty in riskier directions, where both the noise covariance and the state penalty are simultaneously large. The properties of the proposed risk-aware LQR framework are also illustrated via indicative numerical examples.
This paper studies epidemic processes over discrete-time periodic time-varying networks. We focus on the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model that accounts for a (possibly) mutating virus. We say that an agent is in the disease-free state if it is not infected by the virus. Our objective is to devise a control strategy which ensures that all agents in a network exponentially (resp. asymptotically) converge to the disease-free equilibrium (DFE). Towards this end, we first provide a) sufficient conditions for exponential (resp. asymptotic) convergence to the DFE; and b) a necessary and sufficient condition for asymptotic convergence to the DFE. The sufficient condition for global exponential stability (GES) (resp. global asymptotic stability (GAS)) of the DFE is in terms of the joint spectral radius of a set of suitably-defined matrices, whereas the necessary and sufficient condition for GAS of the DFE involves the spectral radius of an appropriately-defined product of matrices. Subsequently, we leverage the stability results in order to design a distributed control strategy for eradicating the epidemic.
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