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Register a new userRip van Winkles Razor: A Simple Estimate of Overfit to Test Data
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Traditional statistics forbids use of test data (a.k.a. holdout data) during training. Dwork et al. 2015 pointed out that current practices in machine learning, whereby researchers build upon each others models, copying hyperparameters and even computer code -- amounts to implicitly training on the test set. Thus error rate on test data may not reflect the true population error. This observation initiated {em adaptive data analysis}, which provides evaluation mechanisms with guaranteed upper bounds on this difference. With statistical query (i.e. test accuracy) feedbacks, the best upper bound is fairly pessimistic: the deviation can hit a practically vacuous value if the number of models tested is quadratic in the size of the test set. In this work, we present a simple new estimate, {em Rip van Winkles Razor}. It relies upon a new notion of textquotedblleft information contenttextquotedblright of a model: the amount of information that would have to be provided to an expert referee who is intimately familiar with the field and relevant science/math, and who has been just been woken up after falling asleep at the moment of the creation of the test data (like textquotedblleft Rip van Winkletextquotedblright of the famous fairy tale). This notion of information content is used to provide an estimate of the above deviation which is shown to be non-vacuous in many modern settings.
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Shapley values are great analytical tools in game theory to measure the importance of a player in a game. Due to their axiomatic and desirable properties such as efficiency, they have become popular for feature importance analysis in data science and machine learning. However, the time complexity to compute Shapley values based on the original formula is exponential, and as the number of features increases, this becomes infeasible. Castro et al. [1] developed a sampling algorithm, to estimate Shapley values. In this work, we propose a new sampling method based on a multilinear extension technique as applied in game theory. The aim is to provide a more efficient (sampling) method for estimating Shapley values. Our method is applicable to any machine learning model, in particular for either multi-class classifications or regression problems. We apply the method to estimate Shapley values for multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) and through experimentation on two datasets, we demonstrate that our method provides more accurate estimations of the Shapley values by reducing the variance of the sampling statistics.
We propose emph{MaxUp}, an embarrassingly simple, highly effective technique for improving the generalization performance of machine learning models, especially deep neural networks. The idea is to generate a set of augmented data with some random perturbations or transforms and minimize the maximum, or worst case loss over the augmented data. By doing so, we implicitly introduce a smoothness or robustness regularization against the random perturbations, and hence improve the generation performance. For example, in the case of Gaussian perturbation, emph{MaxUp} is asymptotically equivalent to using the gradient norm of the loss as a penalty to encourage smoothness. We test emph{MaxUp} on a range of tasks, including image classification, language modeling, and adversarial certification, on which emph{MaxUp} consistently outperforms the existing best baseline methods, without introducing substantial computational overhead. In particular, we improve ImageNet classification from the state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy $85.5%$ without extra data to $85.8%$. Code will be released soon.
We provide a new representation-independent formulation of Occams razor theorem, based on Kolmogorov complexity. This new formulation allows us to: (i) Obtain better sample complexity than both length-based and VC-base
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms have achieved great success on many challenging benchmarks (e.g., Computer Go). However, they generally require a large number of rollouts, making their applications costly. Furthermore, it is also extremely challenging to parallelize MCTS due to its inherent sequential nature: each rollout heavily relies on the statistics (e.g., node visitation counts) estimated from previous simulations to achieve an effective exploration-exploitation tradeoff. In spite of these difficulties, we develop an algorithm, WU-UCT, to effectively parallelize MCTS, which achieves linear speedup and exhibits only limited performance loss with an increasing number of workers. The key idea in WU-UCT is a set of statistics that we introduce to track the number of on-going yet incomplete simulation queries (named as unobserved samples). These statistics are used to modify the UCT tree policy in the selection steps in a principled manner to retain effective exploration-exploitation tradeoff when we parallelize the most time-consuming expansion and simulation steps. Experiments on a proprietary benchmark and the Atari Game benchmark demonstrate the linear speedup and the superior performance of WU-UCT comparing to existing techniques.
Automated machine learning (AutoML) can produce complex model ensembles by stacking, bagging, and boosting many individual models like trees, deep networks, and nearest neighbor estimators. While highly accurate, the resulting predictors are large, slow, and opaque as compared to their constituents. To improve the deployment of AutoML on tabular data, we propose FAST-DAD to distill arbitrarily complex ensemble predictors into individual models like boosted trees, random forests, and deep networks. At the heart of our approach is a data augmentation strategy based on Gibbs sampling from a self-attention pseudolikelihood estimator. Across 30 datasets spanning regression and binary/multiclass classification tasks, FAST-DAD distillation produces significantly better individual models than one obtains through standard training on the original data. Our individual distilled models are over 10x faster and more accurate than ensemble predictors produced by AutoML tools like H2O/AutoSklearn.
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