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Quantifying the impact of a scholarly paper is of great significance, yet the effect of geographical distance of cited papers has not been explored. In this paper, we examine 30,596 papers published in Physical Review C, and identify the relationship between citations and geographical distances between author affiliations. Subsequently, a relative citation weight is applied to assess the impact of a scholarly paper. A higher-order weighted quantum PageRank algorithm is also developed to address the behavior of multiple step citation flow. Capturing the citation dynamics with higher-order dependencies reveals the actual impact of papers, including necessary self-citations that are sometimes excluded in prior studies. Quantum PageRank is utilized in this paper to help differentiating nodes whose PageRank values are identical.
Citation prediction of scholarly papers is of great significance in guiding funding allocations, recruitment decisions, and rewards. However, little is known about how citation patterns evolve over time. By exploring the inherent involution property in scholarly paper citation, we introduce the Paper Potential Index (PPI) model based on four factors: inherent quality of scholarly paper, scholarly paper impact decaying over time, early citations, and early citers impact. In addition, by analyzing factors that drive citation growth, we propose a multi-feature model for impact prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that the two models improve the accuracy in predicting scholarly paper citations. Compared to the multi-feature model, the PPI model yields superior predictive performance in terms of range-normalized RMSE. The PPI model better interprets the changes in citation, without the need to adjust parameters. Compared to the PPI model, the multi-feature model performs better prediction in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Accuracy; however, their predictive performance is more dependent on the parameter adjustment.
Despite a long history of use of citation count as a measure to assess the impact or influence of a scientific paper, the evolution of follow-up work inspired by the paper and their interactions through citation links have rarely been explored to quantify how the paper enriches the depth and breadth of a research field. We propose a novel data structure, called Influence Dispersion Tree (IDT) to model the organization of follow-up papers and their dependencies through citations. We also propose the notion of an ideal IDT for every paper and show that an ideal (highly influential) paper should increase the knowledge of a field vertically and horizontally. Upon suitably exploring the structural properties of IDT, we derive a suite of metrics, namely Influence Dispersion Index (IDI), Normalized Influence Divergence (NID) to quantify the influence of a paper. Our theoretical analysis shows that an ideal IDT configuration should have equal depth and breadth (and thus minimize the NID value). We establish the superiority of NID as a better influence measure in two experimental settings. First, on a large real-world bibliographic dataset, we show that NID outperforms raw citation count as an early predictor of the number of new citations a paper will receive within a certain period after publication. Second, we show that NID is superior to the raw citation count at identifying the papers recognized as highly influential through Test of Time Award among all their contemporary papers (published in the same venue). We conclude that in order to quantify the influence of a paper, along with the total citation count, one should also consider how the citing papers are organized among themselves to better understand the influence of a paper on the research field. For reproducibility, the code and datasets used in this study are being made available to the community.
To quantify the mechanism of a complex network growth we focus on the network of citations of scientific papers and use a combination of the theoretical and experimental tools to uncover microscopic details of this network growth. Namely, we develop a stochastic model of citation dynamics based on copying/redirection/triadic closure mechanism. In a complementary and coherent way, the model accounts both for statistics of references of scientific papers and for their citation dynamics. Originating in empirical measurements, the model is cast in such a way that it can be verified quantitatively in every aspect. Such verification is performed by measuring citation dynamics of Physics papers. The measurements revealed nonlinear citation dynamics, the nonlinearity being intricately related to network topology. The nonlinearity has far-reaching consequences including non-stationary citation distributions, diverging citation trajectory of similar papers, runaways or immortal papers with infinite citation lifetime etc. Thus, our most important finding is nonlinearity in complex network growth. In a more specific context, our results can be a basis for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual papers and of the journal impact factor.
Scholarly article impact reflects the significance of academic output recognised by academic peers, and it often plays a crucial role in assessing the scientific achievements of researchers, teams, institutions and countries. It is also used for addressing various needs in the academic and scientific arena, such as recruitment decisions, promotions, and funding allocations. This article provides a comprehensive review of recent progresses related to article impact assessment and prediction. The~review starts by sharing some insight into the article impact research and outlines current research status. Some core methods and recent progress are presented to outline how article impact metrics and prediction have evolved to consider integrating multiple networks. Key techniques, including statistical analysis, machine learning, data mining and network science, are discussed. In particular, we highlight important applications of each technique in article impact research. Subsequently, we discuss the open issues and challenges of article impact research. At the same time, this review points out some important research directions, including article impact evaluation by considering Conflict of Interest, time and location information, various distributions of scholarly entities, and rising stars.
In over five years, Bornmann, Stefaner, de Moya Anegon, and Mutz (2014) and Bornmann, Stefaner, de Moya Anegon, and Mutz (2014, 2015) have published several releases of the www.excellencemapping.net tool revealing (clusters of) excellent institutions worldwide based on citation data. With the new release, a completely revised tool has been published. It is not only based on citation data (bibliometrics), but also Mendeley data (altmetrics). Thus, the institutional impact measurement of the tool has been expanded by focusing on additional status groups besides researchers such as students and librarians. Furthermore, the visualization of the data has been completely updated by improving the operability for the user and including new features such as institutional profile pages. In this paper, we describe the datasets for the current excellencemapping.net tool and the indicators applied. Furthermore, the underlying statistics for the tool and the use of the web application are explained.