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Register a new userInvestigating maximum likelihood based training of infinite mixtures for uncertainty quantification
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Added by
Sina D\\\"aubener
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Uncertainty quantification in neural networks gained a lot of attention in the past years. The most popular approaches, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), Monte Carlo dropout, and deep ensembles have one thing in common: they are all based on some kind of mixture model. While the BNNs build infinite mixture models and are derived via variational inference, the latter two build finite mixtures trained with the maximum likelihood method. In this work we investigate the effect of training an infinite mixture distribution with the maximum likelihood method instead of variational inference. We find that the proposed objective leads to stochastic networks with an increased predictive variance, which improves uncertainty based identification of miss-classification and robustness against adversarial attacks in comparison to a standard BNN with equivalent network structure. The new model also displays higher entropy on out-of-distribution data.
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Although deep learning models have driven state-of-the-art performance on a wide array of tasks, they are prone to learning spurious correlations that should not be learned as predictive clues. To mitigate this problem, we propose a causality-based training framework to reduce the spurious correlations caused by observable confounders. We give theoretical analysis on the underlying general Structural Causal Model (SCM) and propose to perform Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) on the interventional distribution instead of the observational distribution, namely Counterfactual Maximum Likelihood Estimation (CMLE). As the interventional distribution, in general, is hidden from the observational data, we then derive two different upper bounds of the expected negative log-likelihood and propose two general algorithms, Implicit CMLE and Explicit CMLE, for causal predictions of deep learning models using observational data. We conduct experiments on two real-world tasks: Natural Language Inference (NLI) and Image Captioning. The results show that CMLE methods outperform the regular MLE method in terms of out-of-domain generalization performance and reducing spurious correlations, while maintaining comparable performance on the regular evaluations.
We train a generator by maximum likelihood and we also train the same generator architecture by Wasserstein GAN. We then compare the generated samples, exact log-probability densities and approximate Wasserstein distances. We show that an independent critic trained to approximate Wasserstein distance between the validation set and the generator distribution helps detect overfitting. Finally, we use ideas from the one-shot learning literature to develop a novel fast learning critic.
A common assumption in causal modeling posits that the data is generated by a set of independent mechanisms, and algorithms should aim to recover this structure. Standard unsupervised learning, however, is often concerned with training a single model to capture the overall distribution or aspects thereof. Inspired by clustering approaches, we consider mixtures of implicit generative models that ``disentangle the independent generative mechanisms underlying the data. Relying on an additional set of discriminators, we propose a competitive training procedure in which the models only need to capture the portion of the data distribution from which they can produce realistic samples. As a by-product, each model is simpler and faster to train. We empirically show that our approach splits the training distribution in a sensible way and increases the quality of the generated samples.
Given a mixture between two populations of coins, positive coins that each have -- unknown and potentially different -- bias $geqfrac{1}{2}+Delta$ and negative coins with bias $leqfrac{1}{2}-Delta$, we consider the task of estimating the fraction $rho$ of positive coins to within additive error $epsilon$. We achieve an upper and lower bound of $Theta(frac{rho}{epsilon^2Delta^2}logfrac{1}{delta})$ samples for a $1-delta$ probability of success, where crucially, our lower bound applies to all fully-adaptive algorithms. Thus, our sample complexity bounds have tight dependence for every relevant problem parameter. A crucial component of our lower bound proof is a decomposition lemma (see Lemmas 17 and 18) showing how to assemble partially-adaptive bounds into a fully-adaptive bound, which may be of independent interest: though we invoke it for the special case of Bernoulli random variables (coins), it applies to general distributions. We present simulation results to demonstrate the practical efficacy of our approach for realistic problem parameters for crowdsourcing applications, focusing on the rare events regime where $rho$ is small. The fine-grained adaptive flavor of both our algorithm and lower bound contrasts with much previous work in distributional testing and learning.
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