On the new LHCb angular analysis of $B to K^* mu^+ mu^-$: Hadronic effects or New Physics?

The new angular analysis of the decay $B to K^* ell^+ ell^-$ recently presented by the LHCb Collaboration still indicates some tensions with the Standard Model predictions. There are several ongoing analyses to solve the problem of separating hadronic and New Physics effects in this decay, but the significance of the observed tensions in the angular observables in $B to K^* mu^+mu^-$ is still dependent on a theory guesstimate of the hadronic contributions to these decays. Using the new data from LHCb we offer two tests which make a statistical comparison to determine whether the most favoured explanation of the anomalies is New Physics or underestimated hadronic effects. We then analyse the usefulness of these tests in two future scenarios. Finally, we update our global fits to all available $b to s $ data and discuss the impact of the new LHCb measurements.