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Probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery

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 Added by Romit Maulik
 Publication date 2020
  fields Physics
and research's language is English




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We consider the use of probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow {surrogate modeling} and data recovery. This framework is constructed by assuming that the target variables are sampled from a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the inputs. Consequently, the overall formulation sets up a procedure to predict the hyperparameters of this distribution which are then used to compute an objective function given training data. We demonstrate that this framework has the ability to provide for prediction confidence intervals based on the assumption of a probabilistic posterior, given an appropriate model architecture and adequate training data. The applicability of the present framework to cases with noisy measurements and limited observations is also assessed. To demonstrate the capabilities of this framework, we consider canonical regression problems of fluid dynamics from the viewpoint of reduced-order modeling and spatial data recovery for four canonical data sets. The examples considered in this study arise from (1) the shallow water equations, (2) a two-dimensional cylinder flow, (3) the wake of NACA0012 airfoil with a Gurney flap, and (4) the NOAA sea surface temperature data set. The present results indicate that the probabilistic neural network not only produces a machine-learning-based fluid flow {surrogate} model but also systematically quantifies the uncertainty therein to assist with model interpretability.



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In recent years, there have been a surge in applications of neural networks (NNs) in physical sciences. Although various algorithmic advances have been proposed, there are, thus far, limited number of studies that assess the interpretability of neural networks. This has contributed to the hasty characterization of most NN methods as black boxes and hindering wider acceptance of more powerful machine learning algorithms for physics. In an effort to address such issues in fluid flow modeling, we use a probabilistic neural network (PNN) that provide confidence intervals for its predictions in a computationally effective manner. The model is first assessed considering the estimation of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) coefficients from local sensor measurements of solution of the shallow water equation. We find that the present model outperforms a well-known linear method with regard to estimation. This model is then applied to the estimation of the temporal evolution of POD coefficients with considering the wake of a NACA0012 airfoil with a Gurney flap and the NOAA sea surface temperature. The present model can accurately estimate the POD coefficients over time in addition to providing confidence intervals thereby quantifying the uncertainty in the output given a particular training data set.
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