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Register a new userSIRNet: Understanding Social Distancing Measures with Hybrid Neural Network Model for COVID-19 Infectious Spread
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Added by
Zachariah Carmichael
Publication date
2020
fields
Biology
and research's language is
English
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The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic that couples with the epidemiological models. We use categorized spatiotemporally explicit cellphone mobility data as surrogate markers for physical distancing, along with population weighted density and other local data points. We demonstrate at varying geographical granularity that the spectrum of physical distancing options currently being discussed among policy leaders have epidemiologically significant differences in consequences, ranging from viral extinction to near complete population prevalence. The current mobility inflection points vary across geographical regions. Experimental results from SIRNet establish preliminary bounds on such localized mobility that asymptotically induce containment. The model can support in studying non-pharmacological interventions and approaches that minimize societal collateral damage and control mechanisms for an extended period of time.
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We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity--and the exchange of people between regions--and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.
In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of qualitative behavior---no outbreak, controlled outbreak, and uncontrolled outbreak. We also demonstrate that the model can produce transient and sustained waves of infection consistent with secondary outbreaks. We fit the model to cumulative COVID-19 case and mortality data from several regions. Our analysis suggests that regions which experience a significant decline after the first wave of infection, such as Canada and Israel, are more likely to contain secondary waves of infection, whereas regions which only achieve moderate success in mitigating the diseases spread initially, such as the United States, are likely to experience substantial secondary waves or uncontrolled outbreaks.
A novel approach of adapting social distancing consideration into a SEIR model is presented, where susceptible, exposed and unidentified compartments are collated under the umbrella of the social-distanced compartment. Another key characteristic of the model is the inclusion of the nature of social distancing to be contingent on the rate of change of the active cases. The methodology and the results exhibiting an excellent fit to the data (upto 3rd March 2021) are presented, in case of the COVID-19 outbreak in India. The model attributed the apparently extensive social distancing, to the socio-geographical factors, unique to India. Also the data exhibited greater rate of infection from a diagnosed case as compared to undetected infection. Finally, it is demonstrated that a very conservative estimate of undiagnosed cases is at least $75%$ of the total number of cases.
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures through large-scale social distancing measures appears to be the most effective means of mitigation. Here we use an age-structured SIR model with social contact matrices obtained from surveys and Bayesian imputation to study the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in India. The basic reproductive ratio R0 and its time-dependent generalization are computed based on case data, age distribution and social contact structure. The impact of social distancing measures - workplace non-attendance, school closure, lockdown - and their efficacy with durations are then investigated. A three-week lockdown is found insufficient to prevent a resurgence and, instead, protocols of sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation are suggested. Forecasts are provided for the reduction in age-structured morbidity and mortality as a result of these measures. Our study underlines the importance of age and social contact structures in assessing the country-specific impact of mitigatory social distancing.
Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth 2 to 4 weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth 2 weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.
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