In the context of building an intelligent tutoring system (ITS), which improves student learning outcomes by intervention, we set out to improve prediction of student problem outcome. In essence, we want to predict the outcome of a student answering a problem in an ITS from a video feed by analyzing their face and gestures. For this, we present a novel transfer learning facial affect representation and a user-personalized training scheme that unlocks the potential of this representation. We model the temporal structure of video sequences of students solving math problems using a recurrent neural network architecture. Additionally, we extend the largest dataset of student interactions with an intelligent online math tutor by a factor of two. Our final model, coined ATL-BP (Affect Transfer Learning for Behavior Prediction) achieves an increase in mean F-score over state-of-the-art of 45% on this new dataset in the general case and 50% in a more challenging leave-users-out experimental setting when we use a user-personalized training scheme.
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