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Register a new userOptimal Polynomial Prediction Measures and Extremal Polynomial Growth
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We show that the problem of finding the measure supported on a compact subset K of the complex plane such that the variance of the least squares predictor by polynomials of degree at most n at a point exterior to K is a minimum, is equivalent to the problem of finding the polynomial of degree at most n, bounded by 1 on K with extremal growth at this external point. We use this to find the polynomials of extremal growth for the interval [-1,1] at a purely imaginary point. The related problem on the extremal growth of real polynomials was studied by ErdH{o}s in 1947.
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We consider Gaussian measures $mu, tilde{mu}$ on a separable Hilbert space, with fractional-order covariance operators $A^{-2beta}$ resp. $tilde{A}^{-2tilde{beta}}$, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions on $A, tilde{A}$ and $beta, tilde{beta} > 0$ for I. equivalence of the measures $mu$ and $tilde{mu}$, and II. uniform asymptotic optimality of linear predictions for $mu$ based on the misspecified measure $tilde{mu}$. These results hold, e.g., for Gaussian processes on compact metric spaces. As an important special case, we consider the class of generalized Whittle-Matern Gaussian random fields, where $A$ and $tilde{A}$ are elliptic second-order differential operators, formulated on a bounded Euclidean domain $mathcal{D}subsetmathbb{R}^d$ and augmented with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions. Our outcomes explain why the predictive performances of stationary and non-stationary models in spatial statistics often are comparable, and provide a crucial first step in deriving consistency results for parameter estimation of generalized Whittle-Matern fields.
We consider harmonic functions of polynomial growth of some order $d$ on Cayley graphs of groups of polynomial volume growth of order $D$ w.r.t. the word metric and prove the optimal estimate for the dimension of the space of such harmonic functions. More precisely, the dimension of this space of harmonic functions is at most of order $d^{D-1}$. As in the already known Riemannian case, this estimate is polynomial in the growth degree. More generally, our techniques also apply to graphs roughly isometric to Cayley graphs of groups of polynomial volume growth.
Sensitivity indices when the inputs of a model are not independent are estimated by local polynomial techniques. Two original estimators based on local polynomial smoothers are proposed. Both have good theoretical properties which are exhibited and also illustrated through analytical examples. They are used to carry out a sensitivity analysis on a real case of a kinetic model with correlated parameters.
We show how polynomial mappings of degree k from a union of disjoint intervals onto [-1,1] generate a countable number of special cases of a certain generalization of the Chebyshev Polynomials. We also derive a new expression for these generalized Chebyshev Polynomials for any number of disjoint intervals from which the coefficients of x^n can be found explicitly in terms of the end points and the recurrence coefficients. We find that this representation is useful for specializing to the polynomial mapping cases for small k where we will have algebraic expressions for the recurrence coefficients in terms of the end points. We study in detail certain special cases of the polynomials for small k and prove a theorem concerning the location of the zeroes of the polynomials. We also derive an expression for the discriminant for the case of two intervals that is valid for any configuration of the end points.
The Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) predicts an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution. Current analyses frequently employ models which restrict the nonlinearities in the data to be explained by the economic growth variable only. We propose a Generalized Cointegrating Polynomial Regression (GCPR) with flexible time trends to proxy time effects such as technological progress and/or environmental awareness. More specifically, a GCPR includes flexible powers of deterministic trends and integer powers of stochastic trends. We estimate the GCPR by nonlinear least squares and derive its asymptotic distribution. Endogeneity of the regressors can introduce nuisance parameters into this limiting distribution but a simulated approach nevertheless enables us to conduct valid inference. Moreover, a subsampling KPSS test can be used to check the stationarity of the errors. A comprehensive simulation study shows good performance of the simulated inference approach and the subsampling KPSS test. We illustrate the GCPR approach on a dataset of 18 industrialised countries containing GDP and CO2 emissions. We conclude that: (1) the evidence for an EKC is significantly reduced when a nonlinear time trend is included, and (2) a linear cointegrating relation between GDP and CO2 around a power law trend also provides an accurate description of the data.
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