We study the dynamics of a spectator Higgs field which stochastically evolves during inflation onto near-critical trajectories on the edge of a runaway instability. We show that its fluctuations do not produce primordial black holes (PBHs) in sufficient abundance to be the dark matter, nor do they produce significant second-order gravitational waves. First we show that the Higgs produces larger fluctuations on CMB scales than on PBH scales, itself a no-go for a viable PBH scenario. Then we track the superhorizon perturbations nonlinearly through reheating using the delta N formalism to show that they are not converted to large curvature fluctuations. Our conclusions hold regardless of any fine-tuning of the Higgs field for both the Standard Model Higgs and for Higgs potentials modified to prevent unbounded runaway.
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