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Register a new userBeta DVBF: Learning State-Space Models for Control from High Dimensional Observations
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Learning a model of dynamics from high-dimensional images can be a core ingredient for success in many applications across different domains, especially in sequential decision making. However, currently prevailing methods based on latent-variable models are limited to working with low resolution images only. In this work, we show that some of the issues with using high-dimensional observations arise from the discrepancy between the dimensionality of the latent and observable space, and propose solutions to overcome them.
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Gaussian process (GP) regression with 1D inputs can often be performed in linear time via a stochastic differential equation formulation. However, for non-Gaussian likelihoods, this requires application of approximate inference methods which can make the implementation difficult, e.g., expectation propagation can be numerically unstable and variational inference can be computationally inefficient. In this paper, we propose a new method that removes such difficulties. Building upon an existing method called conjugate-computation variational inference, our approach enables linear-time inference via Kalman recursions while avoiding numerical instabilities and convergence issues. We provide an efficient JAX implementation which exploits just-in-time compilation and allows for fast automatic differentiation through large for-loops. Overall, our approach leads to fast and stable variational inference in state-space GP models that can be scaled to time series with millions of data points.
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Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time series forecasting whereby the non-linear emission model and transition model are parameterized by networks and the dependency is modeled by recurrent neural nets. We take the automatic relevance determination (ARD) view and devise a network to exploit the exogenous variables in addition to time series. In particular, our ARD network can incorporate the uncertainty of the exogenous variables and eventually helps identify useful exogenous variables and suppress those irrelevant for forecasting. The distribution of multi-step ahead forecasts are approximated by Monte Carlo simulation. We show in experiments that our model produces accurate and sharp probabilistic forecasts. The estimated uncertainty of our forecasting also realistically increases over time, in a spontaneous manner.
In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are particularly challenging in such nonstationary environments. In this paper, we study causal discovery and forecasting for nonstationary time series. By exploiting a particular type of state-space model to represent the processes, we show that nonstationarity helps to identify causal structure and that forecasting naturally benefits from learned causal knowledge. Specifically, we allow changes in both causal strengths and noise variances in the nonlinear state-space models, which, interestingly, renders both the causal structure and model parameters identifiable. Given the causal model, we treat forecasting as a problem in Bayesian inference in the causal model, which exploits the time-varying property of the data and adapts to new observations in a principled manner. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.
Unsupervised meta-learning approaches rely on synthetic meta-tasks that are created using techniques such as random selection, clustering and/or augmentation. Unfortunately, clustering and augmentation are domain-dependent, and thus they require either manual tweaking or expensive learning. In this work, we describe an approach that generates meta-tasks using generative models. A critical component is a novel approach of sampling from the latent space that generates objects grouped into synthetic classes forming the training and validation data of a meta-task. We find that the proposed approach, LAtent Space Interpolation Unsupervised Meta-learning (LASIUM), outperforms or is competitive with current unsupervised learning baselines on few-shot classification tasks on the most widely used benchmark datasets. In addition, the approach promises to be applicable without manual tweaking over a wider range of domains than previous approaches.
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