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Register a new userOn Probability and Cosmology: Inference Beyond Data?
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Martin Sahlen
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Modern scientific cosmology pushes the boundaries of knowledge and the knowable. This is prompting questions on the nature of scientific knowledge. A central issue is what defines a good model. When addressing global properties of the Universe or its initial state this becomes a particularly pressing issue. How to assess the probability of the Universe as a whole is empirically ambiguous, since we can examine only part of a single realisation of the system under investigation: at some point, data will run out. We review the basics of applying Bayesian statistical explanation to the Universe as a whole. We argue that a conventional Bayesian approach to model inference generally fails in such circumstances, and cannot resolve, e.g., the so-called measure problem in inflationary cosmology. Implicit and non-empirical valuations inevitably enter model assessment in these cases. This undermines the possibility to perform Bayesian model comparison. One must therefore either stay silent, or pursue a more general form of systematic and rational model assessment. We outline a generalised axiological Bayesian model inference framework, based on mathematical lattices. This extends inference based on empirical data (evidence) to additionally consider the properties of model structure (elegance) and model possibility space (beneficence). We propose this as a natural and theoretically well-motivated framework for introducing an explicit, rational approach to theoretical model prejudice and inference beyond data.
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I argue that some important elements of the current cosmological model are conventionalist in the sense defined by Karl Popper. These elements include dark matter and dark energy; both are auxiliary hypotheses that were invoked in response to observations that falsified the standard model as it existed at the time. The use of conventionalist stratagems in response to unexpected observations implies that the field of cosmology is in a state of degenerating problemshift in the language of Imre Lakatos. I show that the concordance argument, often put forward by cosmologists in support of the current paradigm, is weaker than the convergence arguments that were made in the past in support of the atomic theory of matter or the quantization of energy.
In these lectures the present status of the so-called standard cosmological model, based on the hot Big Bang theory and the inflationary paradigm is reviewed. Special emphasis is given to the origin of the cosmological perturbations we see today under the form of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and the large scale structure and to the dark matter and dark energy puzzles.
We study transition rates and cross sections from first principles in a spatially flat radiation dominated cosmology. We consider a model of scalar particles to study scattering and heavy particle production from pair annihilation, drawing more general conclusions. The S-matrix formulation is ill suited to study these ubiquitous processes in a rapidly expanding cosmology. We introduce a physically motivated adiabatic expansion that relies on wavelengths much smaller than the particle horizon at a given time. The leading order in this expansion dominates the transition rates and cross sections. Several important and general results are direct consequences of the cosmological redshift and a finite particle horizon: i) a violation of local Lorentz invariance, ii) freeze-out of the production cross section at a finite time, iii) sub-threshold production of heavier particles as a consequence of the uncertainty in the local energy from a finite particle horizon, a manifestation of the emph{antizeno} effect. If heavy dark matter is produced via annihilation of a lighter species, sub-threshold production yields an enhanced abundance. We discuss several possible consequences of these effects.
In String Gas Cosmology, the simplest shape modulus fields are naturally stabilized by taking into account the presence of string winding and momentum modes. We determine the resulting effective potential for these fields and show that it obeys the de Sitter conjecture, one of the swampland criteria for effective field theories to be consistent with superstring theory.
Gravitational particle production in time variable metric of an expanding universe is efficient only when the Hubble parameter $H$ is not too small in comparison with the particle mass. In standard cosmology, the huge value of the Planck mass $M_{Pl}$ makes the mechanism phenomenologically irrelevant. On the other hand, in braneworld cosmology the expansion rate of the early universe can be much faster and many weakly interacting particles can be abundantly created. Cosmological implications are discussed.
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