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Register a new userReproducing scientists mobility: A data-driven model
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High skill labour is an important factor underpinning the competitive advantage of modern economies. Therefore, attracting and retaining scientists has become a major concern for migration policy. In this work, we study the migration of scientists on a global scale, by combining two large data sets covering the publications of 3.5 Mio scientists over 60 years. We analyse their geographical distances moved for a new affiliation and their age when moving, this way reconstructing their geographical career paths. These paths are used to derive the world network of scientists mobility between cities and to analyse its topological properties. We further develop and calibrate an agent-based model, such that it reproduces the empirical findings both at the level of scientists and of the global network. Our model takes into account that the academic hiring process is largely demand-driven and demonstrates that the probability of scientists to relocate decreases both with age and with distance. Our results allow interpreting the model assumptions as micro-based decision rules that can explain the observed mobility patterns of scientists.
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Previous works have shown the universality of allometric scalings under density and total value at city level, but our understanding about the size effects of regions on them is still poor. Here, we revisit the scaling relations between gross domestic production (GDP) and population (POP) under total and density value. We first reveal that the superlinear scaling is a general feature under density value crossing different regions. The scaling exponent $beta$ under density value falls into the range $(1.0, 2.0]$, which unexpectedly goes beyond the range observed by Pan et al. (Nat. Commun. vol. 4, p. 1961 (2013)). To deal with the wider range, we propose a network model based on 2D lattice space with the spatial correlation factor $alpha$ as parameter. Numerical experiments prove that the generated scaling exponent $beta$ in our model is fully tunable by the spatial correlation factor $alpha$. We conjecture that our model provides a general platform for extensive urban and regional studies.
The potential impact of automation on the labor market is a topic that has generated significant interest and concern amongst scholars, policymakers, and the broader public. A number of studies have estimated occupation-specific risk profiles by examining the automatability of associated skills and tasks. However, relatively little work has sought to take a more holistic view on the process of labor reallocation and how employment prospects are impacted as displaced workers transition into new jobs. In this paper, we develop a new data-driven model to analyze how workers move through an empirically derived occupational mobility network in response to automation scenarios which increase labor demand for some occupations and decrease it for others. At the macro level, our model reproduces a key stylized fact in the labor market known as the Beveridge curve and provides new insights for explaining the curves counter-clockwise cyclicality. At the micro level, our model provides occupation-specific estimates of changes in short and long-term unemployment corresponding to a given automation shock. We find that the network structure plays an important role in determining unemployment levels, with occupations in particular areas of the network having very few job transition opportunities. Such insights could be fruitfully applied to help design more efficient and effective policies aimed at helping workers adapt to the changing nature of the labor market.
We propose a minimal off-lattice model of living organisms where just a very few dynamical rules of growth are assumed. The stable coexistence of many clusters is detected when we replace the global restriction rule by a locally applied one. A rich variety of evolving patterns is revealed where players movement has a decisive role on the evolutionary outcome. For example, intensive individual mobility may jeopardize the survival of the population, but if we increase players movement further then it can save the population. Notably, the collective drive of population members is capable to compensate the negative consequence of intensive movement and keeps the system alive. When the drive becomes biased then the resulting unidirectional flow alters the stable pattern and produce a stripe-like state instead of the previously observed hexagonal arrangement of clusters. Interestingly, the rotation of stripes can be flipped if the individual movement exceeds a threshold value.
The flow of information reaching us via the online media platforms is optimized not by the information content or relevance but by popularity and proximity to the target. This is typically performed in order to maximise platform usage. As a side effect, this introduces an algorithmic bias that is believed to enhance polarization of the societal debate. To study this phenomenon, we modify the well-known continuous opinion dynamics model of bounded confidence in order to account for the algorithmic bias and investigate its consequences. In the simplest version of the original model the pairs of discussion participants are chosen at random and their opinions get closer to each other if they are within a fixed tolerance level. We modify the selection rule of the discussion partners: there is an enhanced probability to choose individuals whose opinions are already close to each other, thus mimicking the behavior of online media which suggest interaction with similar peers. As a result we observe: a) an increased tendency towards polarization, which emerges also in conditions where the original model would predict convergence, and b) a dramatic slowing down of the speed at which the convergence at the asymptotic state is reached, which makes the system highly unstable. Polarization is augmented by a fragmented initial population.
Industrial symbiosis involves creating integrated cycles of by-products and waste between networks of industrial actors in order to maximize economic value, while at the same time minimizing environmental strain. In such a network, the global environmental strain is no longer equal to the sum of the environmental strain of the individual actors, but it is dependent on how well the network performs as a whole. The development of methods to understand, manage or optimize such networks remains an open issue. In this paper we put forward a simulation model of by-product flow between industrial actors. The goal is to introduce a method for modelling symbiotic exchanges from a macro perspective. The model takes into account the effect of two main mechanisms on a multi-objective optimization of symbiotic processes. First it allows us to study the effect of geographical properties of the economic system, said differently, where actors are divided in space. Second, it allows us to study the effect of clustering complementary actors together as a function of distance, by means of a spatial correlation between the actors by-products. Our simulations unveil patterns that are relevant for macro-level policy. First, our results show that the geographical properties are an important factor for the macro performance of symbiotic processes. Second, spatial correlations, which can be interpreted as planned clusters such as Eco-industrial parks, can lead to a very effective macro performance, but only if these are strictly implemented. Finally, we provide a proof of concept by comparing the model to real world data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register database using georeferencing of the companies in the dataset. This work opens up research opportunities in interactive data-driven models and platforms to support real-world implementation of industrial symbiosis.
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