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Register a new userPyro: Deep Universal Probabilistic Programming
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Added by
Eli Bingham
Publication date
2018
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accelerated deep learning framework. To accommodate complex or model-specific algorithmic behavior, Pyro leverages Poutine, a library of composable building blocks for modifying the behavior of probabilistic programs.
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We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do compilation of inference because our method transforms a denotational specification of an inference problem in the form of a probabilistic program written in a universal programming language into a trained neural network denoted in a neural network specification language. When at test time this neural network is fed observational data and executed, it performs approximate inference in the original model specified by the probabilistic program. Our training objective and learning procedure are designed to allow the trained neural network to be used as a proposal distribution in a sequential importance sampling inference engine. We illustrate our method on mixture models and Captcha solving and show significant speedups in the efficiency of inference.
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are powerful modelling tools which allow to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. Inference methods used in PPL can be computationally costly due to significant time burden and/or storage requirements; or they can lack theoretical guarantees of convergence and accuracy when applied to large scale graphical models. To this end, we present the Universal Marginaliser (UM), a novel method for amortised inference, in PPL. We show how combining samples drawn from the original probabilistic program prior with an appropriate augmentation method allows us to train one neural network to approximate any of the corresponding conditional marginal distributions, with any separation into latent and observed variables, and thus amortise the cost of inference. Finally, we benchmark the method on multiple probabilistic programs, in Pyro, with different model structure.
We present SmartChoices, an approach to making machine learning (ML) a first class citizen in programming languages which we see as one way to lower the entrance cost to applying ML to problems in new domains. There is a growing divide in approaches to building systems: on the one hand, programming leverages human experts to define a system while on the other hand behavior is learned from data in machine learning. We propose to hybridize these two by providing a 3-call API which we expose through an object called SmartChoice. We describe the SmartChoices-interface, how it can be used in programming with minimal code changes, and demonstrate that it is an easy to use but still powerful tool by demonstrating improvements over not using ML at all on three algorithmic problems: binary search, QuickSort, and caches. In these three examples, we replace the commonly used heuristics with an ML model entirely encapsulated within a SmartChoice and thus requiring minimal code changes. As opposed to previous work applying ML to algorithmic problems, our proposed approach does not require to drop existing implementations but seamlessly integrates into the standard software development workflow and gives full control to the software developer over how ML methods are applied. Our implementation relies on standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods. To learn faster, we use the heuristic function, which they are replacing, as an initial function. We show how this initial function can be used to speed up and stabilize learning while providing a safety net that prevents performance to become substantially worse -- allowing for a safe deployment in critical applications in real life.
We give an adequate denotational semantics for languages with recursive higher-order types, continuous probability distributions, and soft constraints. These are expressive languages for building Bayesian models of the kinds used in computational statistics and machine learning. Among them are untyped languages, similar to Church and WebPPL, because our semantics allows recursive mixed-variance datatypes. Our semantics justifies important program equivalences including commutativity. Our new semantic model is based on `quasi-Borel predomains. These are a mixture of chain-complete partial orders (cpos) and quasi-Borel spaces. Quasi-Borel spaces are a recent model of probability theory that focuses on sets of admissible random elements. Probability is traditionally treated in cpo models using probabilistic powerdomains, but these are not known to be commutative on any class of cpos with higher order functions. By contrast, quasi-Borel predomains do support both a commutative probabilistic powerdomain and higher-order functions. As we show, quasi-Borel predomains form both a model of Fiores axiomatic domain theory and a model of Kocks synthetic measure theory.
Building on ideas from probabilistic programming, we introduce the concept of an expectation programming framework (EPF) that automates the calculation of expectations. Analogous to a probabilistic program, an expectation program is comprised of a mix of probabilistic constructs and deterministic calculations that define a conditional distribution over its variables. However, the focus of the inference engine in an EPF is to directly estimate the resulting expectation of the program return values, rather than approximate the conditional distribution itself. This distinction allows us to achieve substantial performance improvements over the standard probabilistic programming pipeline by tailoring the inference to the precise expectation we care about. We realize a particular instantiation of our EPF concept by extending the probabilistic programming language Turing to allow so-called target-aware inference to be run automatically, and show that this leads to significant empirical gains compared to conventional posterior-based inference.
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