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Register a new userTwo novel immunization strategies for epidemic control in directed scale-free networks with nonlinear infectivity
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In this paper, we propose two novel immunization strategies, i.e., combined immunization and duplex immunization, for SIS model in directed scale-free networks, and obtain the epidemic thresholds for them with linear and nonlinear infectivities. With the suggested two new strategies, the epidemic thresholds after immunization are greatly increased. For duplex immunization, we demonstrate that its performance is the best among all usual immunization schemes with respect to degree distribution. And for combined immunization scheme, we show that it is more effective than active immunization. Besides, we give a comprehensive theoretical analysis on applying targeted immunization to directed networks. For targeted immunization strategy, we prove that immunizing nodes with large out-degrees are more effective than immunizing nodes with large in-degrees, and nodes with both large out-degrees and large in-degrees are more worthy to be immunized than nodes with only large out-degrees or large in-degrees. Finally, some numerical analysis are performed to verify and complement our theoretical results. This work is the first to divide the whole population into different types and embed appropriate immunization scheme according to the characteristics of the population, and it will benefit the study of immunization and control of infectious diseases on complex networks.
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Understanding the epidemic dynamics, and finding out efficient techniques to control it, is a challenging issue. A lot of research has been done on targeted immunization strategies, exploiting various global network topological properties. However, in practice, information about the global structure of the contact network may not be available. Therefore, immunization strategies that can deal with a limited knowledge of the network structure are required. In this paper, we propose targeted immunization strategies that require information only at the community level. Results of our investigations on the SIR epidemiological model, using a realistic synthetic benchmark with controlled community structure, show that the community structure plays an important role in the epidemic dynamics. An extensive comparative evaluation demonstrates that the proposed strategies are as efficient as the most influential global centrality based immunization strategies, despite the fact that they use a limited amount of information. Furthermore, they outperform alternative local strategies, which are agnostic about the network structure, and make decisions based on random walks.
In the real world, many complex systems interact with other systems. In addition, the intra- or inter-systems for the spread of information about infectious diseases and the transmission of infectious diseases are often not random, but with direction. Hence, in this paper, we build epidemic model based on an interconnected directed network, which can be considered as the generalization of undirected networks and bipartite networks. By using the mean-field approach, we establish the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible model on this network. We theoretically analyze the model, and obtain the basic reproduction number, which is also the generalization of the critical number corresponding to undirected or bipartite networks. And we prove the global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria via the basic reproduction number as a forward bifurcation parameter. We also give a condition for epidemic prevalence only on a single subnetwork. Furthermore, we carry out numerical simulations, and find that the independence between each nodes in- and out-degrees greatly reduce the impact of the networks topological structure on disease spread.
The study of complex networks sheds light on the relation between the structure and function of complex systems. One remarkable result is the absence of an epidemic threshold in infinite-size scale-free networks, which implies that any infection will perpetually propagate regardless of the spreading rate. The vast majority of current theoretical approaches assumes that infections are transmitted as a reaction process from nodes to all neighbors. Here we adopt a different perspective and show that the epidemic incidence is shaped by traffic flow conditions. Specifically, we consider the scenario in which epidemic pathways are defined and driven by flows. Through extensive numerical simulations and theoretical predictions, it is shown that the value of the epidemic threshold in scale-free networks depends directly on flow conditions, in particular on the first and second moments of the betweenness distribution given a routing protocol. We consider the scenarios in which the delivery capability of the nodes is bounded or unbounded. In both cases, the threshold values depend on the traffic and decrease as flow increases. Bounded delivery provokes the emergence of congestion, slowing down the spreading of the disease and setting a limit for the epidemic incidence. Our results provide a general conceptual framework to understand spreading processes on complex networks.
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here we apply the SIR model and study analytically and numerically the epidemic spread on a recently developed spatial modular model imitating the structure of cities in a country. The model assumes that inside a city the infection channels connect many different locations, while the infection channels between cities are less and usually directly connect only a few nearest neighbor cities in a two-dimensional plane. We find that the model experience two epidemic transitions. The first lower threshold represents a local epidemic spread within a city but not to the entire country and the second higher threshold represents a global epidemic in the entire country. Based on our analytical solution we proposed several control strategies and how to optimize them. We also show that while control strategies can successfully control the disease, early actions are essentials to prevent the disease global spread.
The spread of COVID-19 has been thwarted in most countries through non-pharmaceutical interventions. In particular, the most effective measures in this direction have been the stay-at-home and closure strategies of businesses and schools. However, population-wide lockdowns are far from being optimal carrying heavy economic consequences. Therefore, there is nowadays a strong interest in designing more efficient restrictions. In this work, starting from a recent kinetic-type model which takes into account the heterogeneity described by the social contact of individuals, we analyze the effects of introducing an optimal control strategy into the system, to limit selectively the mean number of contacts and reduce consequently the number of infected cases. Thanks to a data-driven approach, we show that this new mathematical model permits to assess the effects of the social limitations. Finally, using the model introduced here and starting from the available data, we show the effectivity of the proposed selective measures to dampen the epidemic trends.
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