Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userModel Agnostic Time Series Analysis via Matrix Estimation
104
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We propose an algorithm to impute and forecast a time series by transforming the observed time series into a matrix, utilizing matrix estimation to recover missing values and de-noise observed entries, and performing linear regression to make predictions. At the core of our analysis is a representation result, which states that for a large model class, the transformed time series matrix is (approximately) low-rank. In effect, this generalizes the widely used Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) in time series literature, and allows us to establish a rigorous link between time series analysis and matrix estimation. The key to establishing this link is constructing a Page matrix with non-overlapping entries rather than a Hankel matrix as is commonly done in the literature (e.g., SSA). This particular matrix structure allows us to provide finite sample analysis for imputation and prediction, and prove the asymptotic consistency of our method. Another salient feature of our algorithm is that it is model agnostic with respect to both the underlying time dynamics and the noise distribution in the observations. The noise agnostic property of our approach allows us to recover the latent states when only given access to noisy and partial observations a la a Hidden Markov Model; e.g., recovering the time-varying parameter of a Poisson process without knowing that the underlying process is Poisson. Furthermore, since our forecasting algorithm requires regression with noisy features, our approach suggests a matrix estimation based method - coupled with a novel, non-standard matrix estimation error metric - to solve the error-in-variable regression problem, which could be of interest in its own right. Through synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms standard software packages (including R libraries) in the presence of missing data as well as high levels of noise.
rate research
Read More
In many scenarios, humans prefer a text-based representation of quantitative data over numerical, tabular, or graphical representations. The attractiveness of textual summaries for complex data has inspired research on data-to-text systems. While there are several data-to-text tools for time series, few of them try to mimic how humans summarize for time series. In this paper, we propose a model to create human-like text descriptions for time series. Our system finds patterns in time series data and ranks these patterns based on empirical observations of human behavior using utility estimation. Our proposed utility estimation model is a Bayesian network capturing interdependencies between different patterns. We describe the learning steps for this network and introduce baselines along with their performance for each step. The output of our system is a natural language description of time series that attempts to match a humans summary of the same data.
We study the problem of robust time series analysis under the standard auto-regressive (AR) time series model in the presence of arbitrary outliers. We devise an efficient hard thresholding based algorithm which can obtain a consistent estimate of the optimal AR model despite a large fraction of the time series points being corrupted. Our algorithm alternately estimates the corrupted set of points and the model parameters, and is inspired by recent advances in robust regression and hard-thresholding methods. However, a direct application of existing techniques is hindered by a critical difference in the time-series domain: each point is correlated with all previous points rendering existing tools inapplicable directly. We show how to overcome this hurdle using novel proof techniques. Using our techniques, we are also able to provide the first efficient and provably consistent estimator for the robust regression problem where a standard linear observation model with white additive noise is corrupted arbitrarily. We illustrate our methods on synthetic datasets and show that our methods indeed are able to consistently recover the optimal parameters despite a large fraction of points being corrupted.
Anomaly detection on multivariate time-series is of great importance in both data mining research and industrial applications. Recent approaches have achieved significant progress in this topic, but there is remaining limitations. One major limitation is that they do not capture the relationships between different time-series explicitly, resulting in inevitable false alarms. In this paper, we propose a novel self-supervised framework for multivariate time-series anomaly detection to address this issue. Our framework considers each univariate time-series as an individual feature and includes two graph attention layers in parallel to learn the complex dependencies of multivariate time-series in both temporal and feature dimensions. In addition, our approach jointly optimizes a forecasting-based model and are construction-based model, obtaining better time-series representations through a combination of single-timestamp prediction and reconstruction of the entire time-series. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model through extensive experiments. The proposed method outperforms other state-of-the-art models on three real-world datasets. Further analysis shows that our method has good interpretability and is useful for anomaly diagnosis.
Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been proposed to analyze this type of data. Time series data has been also used to study the effect of interventions over time. Moreover, in many fields of science, learning the causal structure of dynamic systems and time series data is considered an interesting task which plays an important role in scientific discoveries. Estimating the effect of an intervention and identifying the causal relations from the data can be performed via causal inference. Existing surveys on time series discuss traditional tasks such as classification and forecasting or explain the details of the approaches proposed to solve a specific task. In this paper, we focus on two causal inference tasks, i.e., treatment effect estimation and causal discovery for time series data, and provide a comprehensive review of the approaches in each task. Furthermore, we curate a list of commonly used evaluation metrics and datasets for each task and provide in-depth insight. These metrics and datasets can serve as benchmarks for research in the field.
We design differentially private learning algorithms that are agnostic to the learning model. Our algorithms are interactive in nature, i.e., instead of outputting a model based on the training data, they provide predictions for a set of $m$ feature vectors that arrive online. We show that, for the feature vectors on which an ensemble of models (trained on random disjoint subsets of a dataset) makes consistent predictions, there is almost no-cost of privacy in generating accurate predictions for those feature vectors. To that end, we provide a novel coupling of the distance to instability framework with the sparse vector technique. We provide algorithms with formal privacy and utility guarantees for both binary/multi-class classification, and soft-label classification. For binary classification in the standard (agnostic) PAC model, we show how to bootstrap from our privately generated predictions to construct a computationally efficient private learner that outputs a final accurate hypothesis. Our construction - to the best of our knowledge - is the first computationally efficient construction for a label-private learner. We prove sample complexity upper bounds for this setting. As in non-private sample complexity bounds, the only relevant property of the given concept class is its VC dimension. For soft-label classification, our techniques are based on exploiting the stability properties of traditional learning algorithms, like stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We provide a new technique to boost the average-case stability properties of learning algorithms to strong (worst-case) stability properties, and then exploit them to obtain private classification algorithms. In the process, we also show that a large class of SGD methods satisfy average-case stability properties, in contrast to a smaller class of SGD methods that are uniformly stable as shown in prior work.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
