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Register a new userStochastic Variational Video Prediction
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Added by
Mohammad Babaeizadeh
Publication date
2017
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Predicting the future in real-world settings, particularly from raw sensory observations such as images, is exceptionally challenging. Real-world events can be stochastic and unpredictable, and the high dimensionality and complexity of natural images requires the predictive model to build an intricate understanding of the natural world. Many existing methods tackle this problem by making simplifying assumptions about the environment. One common assumption is that the outcome is deterministic and there is only one plausible future. This can lead to low-quality predictions in real-world settings with stochastic dynamics. In this paper, we develop a stochastic variational video prediction (SV2P) method that predicts a different possible future for each sample of its latent variables. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first to provide effective stochastic multi-frame prediction for real-world video. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in predicting detailed future frames of videos on multiple real-world datasets, both action-free and action-conditioned. We find that our proposed method produces substantially improved video predictions when compared to the same model without stochasticity, and to other stochastic video prediction methods. Our SV2P implementation will be open sourced upon publication.
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Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.
In order to interact with the world, agents must be able to predict the results of the worlds dynamics. A natural approach to learn about these dynamics is through video prediction, as cameras are ubiquitous and powerful sensors. Direct pixel-to-pixel video prediction is difficult, does not take advantage of known priors, and does not provide an easy interface to utilize the learned dynamics. Object-centric video prediction offers a solution to these problems by taking advantage of the simple prior that the world is made of objects and by providing a more natural interface for control. However, existing object-centric video prediction pipelines require dense object annotations in training video sequences. In this work, we present Object-centric Prediction without Annotation (OPA), an object-centric video prediction method that takes advantage of priors from powerful computer vision models. We validate our method on a dataset comprised of video sequences of stacked objects falling, and demonstrate how to adapt a perception model in an environment through end-to-end video prediction training.
To synthesize a realistic action sequence based on a single human image, it is crucial to model both motion patterns and diversity in the action video. This paper proposes an Action Conditional Temporal Variational AutoEncoder (ACT-VAE) to improve motion prediction accuracy and capture movement diversity. ACT-VAE predicts pose sequences for an action clips from a single input image. It is implemented as a deep generative model that maintains temporal coherence according to the action category with a novel temporal modeling on latent space. Further, ACT-VAE is a general action sequence prediction framework. When connected with a plug-and-play Pose-to-Image (P2I) network, ACT-VAE can synthesize image sequences. Extensive experiments bear out our approach can predict accurate pose and synthesize realistic image sequences, surpassing state-of-the-art approaches. Compared to existing methods, ACT-VAE improves model accuracy and preserves diversity.
A video prediction model that generalizes to diverse scenes would enable intelligent agents such as robots to perform a variety of tasks via planning with the model. However, while existing video prediction models have produced promising results on small datasets, they suffer from severe underfitting when trained on large and diverse datasets. To address this underfitting challenge, we first observe that the ability to train larger video prediction models is often bottlenecked by the memory constraints of GPUs or TPUs. In parallel, deep hierarchical latent variable models can produce higher quality predictions by capturing the multi-level stochasticity of future observations, but end-to-end optimization of such models is notably difficult. Our key insight is that greedy and modular optimization of hierarchical autoencoders can simultaneously address both the memory constraints and the optimization challenges of large-scale video prediction. We introduce Greedy Hierarchical Variational Autoencoders (GHVAEs), a method that learns high-fidelity video predictions by greedily training each level of a hierarchical autoencoder. In comparison to state-of-the-art models, GHVAEs provide 17-55% gains in prediction performance on four video datasets, a 35-40% higher success rate on real robot tasks, and can improve performance monotonically by simply adding more modules.
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