We study theoretically the spin-induced and photon-induced fluctuations of optical signals from a singly-charged quantum dot-microcavity structure. We identify the respective contributions of the photon-polariton interactions, in the strong light-matter coupling regime, and of the quantum back-action induced by photon detection on the spin system. Strong spin projection by a single photon is shown to be achievable, allowing the initialization and measurement of a fully-polarized Larmor precession. The spectrum of second-order correlations is deduced, displaying information on both spin and quantum dot-cavity dynamics. The presented theory thus bridges the gap between the fields of spin noise spectroscopy and quantum optics.
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