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Register a new userParticle systems with singular interaction through hitting times: application in systemic risk modeling
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We propose an interacting particle system to model the evolution of a system of banks with mutual exposures. In this model, a bank defaults when its normalized asset value hits a lower threshold, and its default causes instantaneous losses to other banks, possibly triggering a cascade of defaults. The strength of this interaction is determined by the level of the so-called non-core exposure. We show that, when the size of the system becomes large, the cumulative loss process of a bank resulting from the defaults of other banks exhibits discontinuities. These discontinuities are naturally interpreted as systemic events, and we characterize them explicitly in terms of the level of non-core exposure and the fraction of banks that are about to default. The main mathematical challenges of our work stem from the very singular nature of the interaction between the particles, which is inherited by the limiting system. A similar particle system is analyzed in [DIRT15a] and [DIRT15b], and we build on and extend their results. In particular, we characterize the large-population limit of the system and analyze the jump times, the regularity between jumps, and the local uniqueness of the limiting process.
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Building on the line of work [DIRT15a], [DIRT15b], [NS17a], [DT17], [HLS18], [HS18] we continue the study of particle systems with singular interaction through hitting times. In contrast to the previous research, we (i) consider very general driving processes and interaction functions, (ii) allow for inhomogeneous connection structures, and (iii) analyze a game in which the particles determine their connections strategically. Hereby, we uncover two completely new phenomena. First, we characterize the times of fragility of such systems (e.g., the times when a macroscopic part of the population defaults or gets infected simultaneously, or when the neuron cells synchronize) explicitly in terms of the dynamics of the driving processes, the current distribution of the particles values, and the topology of the underlying network (represented by its Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue). Second, we use such systems to describe a dynamic credit-network game and show that, in equilibrium, the system regularizes: i.e., the times of fragility never occur, as the particles avoid them by adjusting their connections strategically. Two auxiliary mathematical results, useful in their own right, are uncovered during our investigation: a generalization of Schauders fixed-point theorem for the Skorokhod space with the M1 topology, and the application of the max-plus algebra to the equilibrium version of the network flow problem.
We consider the asymptotic behavior of the fluctuations for the empirical measures of interacting particle systems with singular kernels. We prove that the sequence of fluctuation processes converges in distribution to a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our result considerably extends classical results to singular kernels, including the Biot-Savart law. The result applies to the point vortex model approximating the 2D incompressible Navier-Stokes equation and the 2D Euler equation. We also obtain Gaussianity and optimal regularity of the limiting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The method relies on the martingale approach and the Donsker-Varadhan variational formula, which transfers the uniform estimate to some exponential integrals. Estimation of those exponential integrals follows by cancellations and combinatorics techniques and is of the type of large deviation principle.
We study two-dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of McKean--Vlasov type in which the conditional distribution of the second component of the solution given the first enters the equation for the first component of the solution. Such SDEs arise when one tries to invert the Markovian projection developed by Gyongy (1986), typically to produce an It^o process with the fixed-time marginal distributions of a given one-dimensional diffusion but richer dynamical features. We prove the strong existence of stationary solutions for these SDEs, as well as their strong uniqueness in an important special case. Variants of the SDEs discussed in this paper enjoy frequent application in the calibration of local stochastic volatility models in finance, despite the very limited theoretical understanding.
We present a simple uniqueness argument for a collection of McKean-Vlasov problems that have seen recent interest. Our first result shows that, in the weak feedback regime, there is global uniqueness for a very general class of random drivers. By weak feedback we mean the case where the contagion parameters are small enough to prevent blow-ups in solutions. Next, we specialise to a Brownian driver and show how the same techniques can be extended to give short-time uniqueness after blow-ups, regardless of the feedback strength. The heart of our approach is a surprisingly simple probabilistic comparison argument that is robust in the sense that it does not ask for any regularity of the solutions.
We consider moderately interacting particle systems with singular interaction kernel and environmental noise. It is shown that the mollified empirical measures converge in strong norms to the unique (local) solutions of nonlinear Fokker-Planck equations. The approach works for the Biot-Savart and Poisson kernels.
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