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The average portfolio structure of institutional investors is shown to have properties which account for transaction costs in an optimal way. This implies that financial institutions unknowingly display collective rationality, or Wisdom of the Crowd. Individual deviations from the rational benchmark are ample, which illustrates that system-wide rationality does not need nearly rational individuals. Finally we discuss the importance of accounting for constraints when assessing the presence of Wisdom of the Crowd.
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We consider two-alternative elections where voters preferences depend on a state variable that is not directly observable. Each voter receives a private signal that is correlated to the state variable. Voters may be contingent with different preferences in different states; or predetermined with the same preference in every state. In this setting, even if every voter is a contingent voter, agents voting according to their private information need not result in the adoption of the universally preferred alternative, because the signals can be systematically biased. We present an easy-to-deploy mechanism that elicits and aggregates the private signals from the voters, and outputs the alternative that is favored by the majority. In particular, voters truthfully reporting their signals forms a strong Bayes Nash equilibrium (where no coalition of voters can deviate and receive a better outcome).
How do we design and deploy crowdsourced prediction platforms for real-world applications where risk is an important dimension of prediction performance? To answer this question, we conducted a large online Wisdom of the Crowd study where participants predicted the prices of real financial assets (e.g. S&P 500). We observe a Pareto frontier between accuracy of prediction and risk, and find that this trade-off is mediated by social learning i.e. as social learning is increasingly leveraged, it leads to lower accuracy but also lower risk. We also observe that social learning leads to superior accuracy during one of our rounds that occurred during the high market uncertainty of the Brexit vote. Our results have implications for the design of crowdsourced prediction platforms: for example, they suggest that the performance of the crowd should be more comprehensively characterized by using both accuracy and risk (as is standard in financial and statistical forecasting), in contrast to prior work where risk of prediction has been overlooked.
Developers of computer vision algorithms outsource some of the labor involved in annotating training data through business process outsourcing companies and crowdsourcing platforms. Many data annotators are situated in the Global South and are considered independent contractors. This paper focuses on the experiences of Argentinian and Venezuelan annotation workers. Through qualitative methods, we explore the discourses encoded in the task instructions that these workers follow to annotate computer vision datasets. Our preliminary findings indicate that annotation instructions reflect worldviews imposed on workers and, through their labor, on datasets. Moreover, we observe that for-profit goals drive task instructions and that managers and algorithms make sure annotations are done according to requesters commands. This configuration presents a form of commodified labor that perpetuates power asymmetries while reinforcing social inequalities and is compelled to reproduce them into datasets and, subsequently, in computer vision systems.
Sentiment Analysis of microblog feeds has attracted considerable interest in recent times. Most of the current work focuses on tweet sentiment classification. But not much work has been done to explore how reliable the opinions of the mass (crowd wisdom) in social network microblogs such as twitter are in predicting outcomes of certain events such as election debates. In this work, we investigate whether crowd wisdom is useful in predicting such outcomes and whether their opinions are influenced by the experts in the field. We work in the domain of multi-label classification to perform sentiment classification of tweets and obtain the opinion of the crowd. This learnt sentiment is then used to predict outcomes of events such as: US Presidential Debate winners, Grammy Award winners, Super Bowl Winners. We find that in most of the cases, the wisdom of the crowd does indeed match with that of the experts, and in cases where they dont (particularly in the case of debates), we see that the crowds opinion is actually influenced by that of the experts.
Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini ($g$) index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata ($k$) index gives a measure of $1-k$ fraction of population who possess top $k$ fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the character of such inequalities, as seen from a variety of data sources, the apparent relationship between the two indices, and what toy models tell us. These socio-economic inequalities are also investigated in the context of man-made social conflicts or wars, as well as in natural disasters. Finally, we forward a proposal for an international institution with sufficient fund for visitors, where natural and social scientists from various institutions of the world can come to discuss, debate and formulate further developments.
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