No Arabic abstract
In the presence of background noise, arrival times picked from a surface microseismic data set usually include a number of false picks that can lead to uncertainty in location estimation. To eliminate false picks and improve the accuracy of location estimates, we develop an association algorithm termed RANSAC-based Arrival Time Event Clustering (RATEC) that clusters picked arrival times into event groups based on random sampling and fitting moveout curves that approximate hyperbolas. Arrival times far from the fitted hyperbolas are classified as false picks and removed from the data set prior to location estimation. Simulations of synthetic data for a 1-D linear array show that RATEC is robust under different noise conditions and generally applicable to various types of subsurface structures. By generalizing the underlying moveout model, RATEC is extended to the case of a 2-D surface monitoring array. The effectiveness of event location for the 2-D case is demonstrated using a data set collected by the 5200-element dense Long Beach array. The obtained results suggest that RATEC is effective in removing false picks and hence can be used for phase association before location estimates.
Small magnitude earthquakes are the most abundant but the most difficult to locate robustly and well due to their low amplitudes and high frequencies usually obscured by heterogeneous noise sources. They highlight crucial information about the stress state and the spatio-temporal behavior of fault systems during the earthquake cycle, therefore, its full characterization is then crucial for improving earthquake hazard assessment. Modern DL algorithms along with the increasing computational power are exploiting the continuously growing seismological databases, allowing scientists to improve the completeness for earthquake catalogs, systematically detecting smaller magnitude earthquakes and reducing the errors introduced mainly by human intervention. In this work, we introduce OKSP, a novel automatic earthquake detection pipeline for seismic monitoring in Costa Rica. Using Kabre supercomputer from the Costa Rica High Technology Center, we applied OKSP to the day before and the first 5 days following the Puerto Armuelles, M6.5, earthquake that occurred on 26 June, 2019, along the Costa Rica-Panama border and found 1100 more earthquakes previously unidentified by the Volcanological and Seismological Observatory of Costa Rica. From these events, a total of 23 earthquakes with magnitudes below 1.0 occurred a day to hours prior to the mainshock, shedding light about the rupture initiation and earthquake interaction leading to the occurrence of this productive seismic sequence. Our observations show that for the study period, the model was 100% exhaustive and 82% precise, resulting in an F1 score of 0.90. This effort represents the very first attempt for automatically detecting earthquakes in Costa Rica using deep learning methods and demonstrates that, in the near future, earthquake monitoring routines will be carried out entirely by AI algorithms.
Passive microseismic data are commonly buried in noise, which presents a significant challenge for signal detection and recovery. For recordings from a surface sensor array where each trace contains a time-delayed arrival from the event, we propose an autocorrelation-based stacking method that designs a denoising filter from all the traces, as well as a multi-channel detection scheme. This approach circumvents the issue of time aligning the traces prior to stacking because every traces autocorrelation is centered at zero in the lag domain. The effect of white noise is concentrated near zero lag, so the filter design requires a predictable adjustment of the zero-lag value. Truncation of the autocorrelation is employed to smooth the impulse response of the denoising filter. In order to extend the applicability of the algorithm, we also propose a noise prewhitening scheme that addresses cases with colored noise. The simplicity and robustness of this method are validated with synthetic and real seismic traces.
Continuous microseismic monitoring of hydraulic fracturing is commonly used in many engineering, environmental, mining, and petroleum applications. Microseismic signals recorded at the surface, suffer from excessive noise that complicates first-break picking and subsequent data processing and analysis. This study presents a new first-break picking algorithm that employs concepts from seismic interferometry and time-frequency (TF) analysis. The algorithm first uses a TF plot to manually pick a reference first-break and then iterates the steps of cross-correlation, alignment, and stacking to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of the relative first breaks. The reference first-break is subsequently used to calculate final first breaks from the relative ones. Testing on synthetic and real data sets at high levels of additive noise shows that the algorithm enhances the first-break picking considerably. Furthermore, results show that only two iterations are needed to converge to the true first breaks. Indeed, iterating more can have detrimental effects on the algorithm due to increasing correlation of random noise.
In inverse problems, uncertainty quantification (UQ) deals with a probabilistic description of the solution nonuniqueness and data noise sensitivity. Setting seismic imaging into a Bayesian framework allows for a principled way of studying uncertainty by solving for the model posterior distribution. Imaging, however, typically constitutes only the first stage of a sequential workflow, and UQ becomes even more relevant when applied to subsequent tasks that are highly sensitive to the inversion outcome. In this paper, we focus on how UQ trickles down to horizon tracking for the determination of stratigraphic models and investigate its sensitivity with respect to the imaging result. As such, the main contribution of this work consists in a data-guided approach to horizon tracking uncertainty analysis. This work is fundamentally based on a special reparameterization of reflectivity, known as deep prior. Feasible models are restricted to the output of a convolutional neural network with a fixed input, while weights and biases are Gaussian random variables. Given a deep prior model, the network parameters are sampled from the posterior distribution via a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, from which the conditional mean and point-wise standard deviation of the inferred reflectivities are approximated. For each sample of the posterior distribution, a reflectivity is generated, and the horizons are tracked automatically. In this way, uncertainty on model parameters naturally translates to horizon tracking. As part of the validation for the proposed approach, we verified that the estimated confidence intervals for the horizon tracking coincide with geologically complex regions, such as faults.
Early detection of changes in the frequency of events is an important task, in, for example, disease surveillance, monitoring of high-quality processes, reliability monitoring and public health. In this article, we focus on detecting changes in multivariate event data, by monitoring the time-between-events (TBE). Existing multivariate TBE charts are limited in the sense that, they only signal after an event occurred for each of the individual processes. This results in delays (i.e., long time to signal), especially if it is of interest to detect a change in one or a few of the processes. We propose a bivariate TBE (BTBE) chart which is able to signal in real time. We derive analytical expressions for the control limits and average time-to-signal performance, conduct a performance evaluation and compare our chart to an existing method. The findings showed that our method is a realistic approach to monitor bivariate time-between-event data, and has better detection ability than existing methods. A large benefit of our method is that it signals in real-time and that due to the analytical expressions no simulation is needed. The proposed method is implemented on a real-life dataset related to AIDS.