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Register a new userCalculating transient rates from surveys
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We have developed a method to determine the transient surface density and transient rate for any given survey, using Monte-Carlo simulations. This method allows us to determine the transient rate as a function of both the flux and the duration of the transients in the whole flux-duration plane rather than one or a few points as currently available methods do. It is applicable to every survey strategy that is monitoring the same part of the sky, regardless the instrument or wavelength of the survey, or the target sources. We have simulated both top-hat and Fast Rise Exponential Decay light curves, highlighting how the shape of the light curve might affect the detectability of transients. Another application for this method is to estimate the number of transients of a given kind that are expected to be detected by a survey, provided that their rate is known.
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We present measurements of the local core collapse supernova (SN) rate using SN discoveries from the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). We use a Monte Carlo simulation of hundreds of millions of SN light curve realizations coupled with the detailed PTF survey detection efficiencies to forward-model the SN rates in PTF. Using a sample of 86 core collapse SNe, including 26 stripped-envelope SNe (SESNe), we show that the overall core collapse SN volumetric rate is $r^mathrm{CC}_v=9.10_{-1.27}^{+1.56}times10^{-5},text{SNe yr}^{-1},text{Mpc}^{-3}, h_{70}^{3}$ at $ langle z rangle = 0.028$, and the SESN volumetric rate is $r^mathrm{SE}_v=2.41_{-0.64}^{+0.81}times10^{-5}, text{SNe yr}^{-1},text{Mpc}^{-3}, h_{70}^{3}$. We further measure a volumetric rate for hydrogen-free superluminous SNe (SLSNe-I) using 8 events at $z{le}0.2$ of $r^mathrm{SLSN-I}_v=35_{-13}^{+25}, text{SNe yr}^{-1}text{Gpc}^{-3}, h_{70}^{3}$, which represents the most precise SLSN-I rate measurement to date. Using a simple cosmic star-formation history to adjust these volumetric rate measurements to the same redshift, we measure a local ratio of SLSN-I to SESN of $sim1/810^{+1500}_{-94}$, and of SLSN-I to all CCSN types of $sim 1/3500^{+2800}_{-720}$. However, using host galaxy stellar mass as a proxy for metallicity, we also show that this ratio is strongly metallicity dependent: in low-mass ($mathrm{log} M_{*} < 9.5 mathrm{M}_odot$) galaxies, which are the only environments that host SLSN-I in our sample, we measure a SLSN-I to SESN fraction of $1/300^{+380}_{-170}$ and $1/1700^{+1800}_{-720}$ for all CCSN. We further investigate the SN rates a function of host galaxy stellar mass and show that the specific rates of all core collapse SNe decrease with increasing stellar mass.
Orphan Afterglows (OA) are slow transients produced by Gamma Ray Bursts seen off-axis that become visible on timescales of days/years at optical/NIR and radio frequencies, when the prompt emission at high energies (X and gamma rays) has already ceased. Given the typically estimated jet opening angle of GRBs theta_jet ~ 3 deg, for each burst pointing to the Earth there should be a factor ~ 700 more GRBs pointing in other directions. Despite this, no secure OAs have been detected so far. Through a population synthesis code we study the emission properties of the population of OA at radio frequencies. OAs reach their emission peak on year-timescales and they last for a comparable amount of time. The typical peak fluxes (which depend on the observing frequency) are of few micro Jy in the radio band with only a few OA reaching the mJy level. These values are consistent with the upper limits on the radio flux of SN Ib/c observed at late times. We find that the OA radio number count distribution has a typical slope -1.7 at high fluxes and a flatter (-0.4) slope at low fluxes with a break at a frequency-dependent flux. Our predictions of the OA rates are consistent with the (upper) limits of recent radio surveys and archive searches for radio transients. Future radio surveys like VAST/ASKAP at 1.4 GHz should detect ~ 3x10^-3 OA deg^-2 yr-1, MeerKAT and EVLA at 8.4 GHz should see ~ 3x10^-1 OA deg-2 yr-1. The SKA, reaching the micro Jy flux limit, could see up to ~ 0.2-1.5 OA deg^-2 yr^-1. These rates also depend on the duration of the OA above a certain flux limit and we discuss this effect with respect to the survey cadence.
Gravitational wave transients, resulting from the merger of two stellar remnants, are now detectable. The properties and rates of these directly relates to the stellar population which gave rise to their progenitors, and thus to other, electromagnetic transients which result from stellar death. We aim to estimate simultaneously the event rates and delay time distribution of gravitational wave-driven compact object mergers together with the rates of core collapse and thermonuclear supernovae within a single consistent stellar population synthesis paradigm. We combine event delay-time distributions at different metallicities from the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) models with an analytic model of the volume-averaged cosmic star formation rate density and chemical evolution to determine the volume-averaged rates of each event rate at the current time. We estimate rates in excellent agreement with extant observational constraints on core-collapse supernovae, thermonuclear supernovae and long GRBs. We predict rates for gravitational wave mergers based on the same stellar populations, and find rates consistent with current LIGO estimates. We note that tighter constraints on the rates of these events will be required before it is possible to determine their redshift evolution, progenitor metallicity dependence or constrain uncertain aspects of stellar evolution.
Any interpretation of the astrophysical neutrinos discovered by IceCube must accommodate a variety of multimessenger constraints. We address implications of these neutrinos being produced in transient sources, principally if buried within supernovae so that gamma rays are absorbed by the star. This would alleviate tension with the isotropic Fermi GeV background that >10 TeV neutrinos rival in detected energy flux. We find that IceCube data constrain transient properties, implying buried GeV-TeV electromagnetic emission near or exceeding canonical SN explosion energies of ~10^51 erg, indicative of an origin within superluminous SNe. TeV neutrino bursts with dozens of IceCube events -- which would be of great use for understanding r-process nucleosynthesis and more -- may be just around the corner if they are a primary component of the flux.
We present a novel algorithm for scheduling the observations of time-domain imaging surveys. Our Integer Linear Programming approach optimizes an observing plan for an entire night by assigning targets to temporal blocks, enabling strict control of the number of exposures obtained per field and minimizing filter changes. A subsequent optimization step minimizes slew times between each observation. Our optimization metric self-consistently weights contributions from time-varying airmass, seeing, and sky brightness to maximize the transient discovery rate. We describe the implementation of this algorithm on the surveys of the Zwicky Transient Facility and present its on-sky performance.
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