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Register a new userBayesian Model Averaging for Ensemble-Based Estimates of Solvation Free Energies
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This paper applies the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) statistical ensemble technique to estimate small molecule solvation free energies. There is a wide range of methods available for predicting solvation free energies, ranging from empirical statistical models to ab initio quantum mechanical approaches. Each of these methods is based on a set of conceptual assumptions that can affect predictive accuracy and transferability. Using an iterative statistical process, we have selected and combined solvation energy estimates using an ensemble of 17 diverse methods from the fourth Statistical Assessment of Modeling of Proteins and Ligands (SAMPL) blind prediction study to form a single, aggregated solvation energy estimate. The ensemble design process evaluates the statistical information in each individual method as well as the performance of the aggregate estimate obtained from the ensemble as a whole. Methods that possess minimal or redundant information are pruned from the ensemble and the evaluation process repeats until aggregate predictive performance can no longer be improved. We show that this process results in a final aggregate estimate that outperforms all individual methods by reducing estimate errors by as much as 91% to 1.2 kcal/mol accuracy. We also compare our iterative refinement approach to other statistical ensemble approaches and demonstrate that this iterative process reduces estimate errors by as much as 61%. This work provides a new approach for accurate solvation free energy prediction and lays the foundation for future work on aggregate models that can balance computational cost with prediction accuracy.
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This chapter reviews the differential geometry-based solvation and electrolyte transport for biomolecular solvation that have been developed over the past decade. A key component of these methods is the differential geometry of surfaces theory, as applied to the solvent-solute boundary. In these approaches, the solvent-solute boundary is determined by a variational principle that determines the major physical observables of interest, for example, biomolecular surface area, enclosed volume, electrostatic potential, ion density, electron density, etc. Recently, differential geometry theory has been used to define the surfaces that separate the microscopic (solute) domains for biomolecules from the macroscopic (solvent) domains. In these approaches, the microscopic domains are modeled with atomistic or quantum mechanical descriptions, while continuum mechanics models (including fluid mechanics, elastic mechanics, and continuum electrostatics) are applied to the macroscopic domains. This multiphysics description is integrated through an energy functional formalism and the resulting Euler-Lagrange equation is employed to derive a variety of governing partial differential equations for different solvation and transport processes; e.g., the Laplace-Beltrami equation for the solvent-solute interface, Poisson or Poisson-Boltzmann equations for electrostatic potentials, the Nernst-Planck equation for ion densities, and the Kohn-Sham equation for solute electron density. Extensive validation of these models has been carried out over hundreds of molecules, including proteins and ion channels, and the experimental data have been compared in terms of solvation energies, voltage-current curves, and density distributions. We also propose a new quantum model for electrolyte transport.
Developing accurate solvers for the Poisson Boltzmann (PB) model is the first step to make the PB model suitable for implicit solvent simulation. Reducing the grid size influence on the performance of the solver benefits to increasing the speed of solver and providing accurate electrostatics analysis for solvated molecules. In this work, we explore the accurate coarse grid PB solver based on the Greens function treatment of the singular charges, matched interface and boundary (MIB) method for treating the geometric singularities, and posterior electrostatic potential field extension for calculating the reaction field energy. We made our previous PB software, MIBPB, robust and provides almost grid size independent reaction field energy calculation. Large amount of the numerical tests verify the grid size independence merit of the MIBPB software. The advantage of MIBPB software directly make the acceleration of the PB solver from the numerical algorithm instead of utilization of advanced computer architectures. Furthermore, the presented MIBPB software is provided as a free online sever.
Machine learning models $-$ now commonly developed to screen, diagnose, or predict health conditions $-$ are evaluated with a variety of performance metrics. An important first step in assessing the practical utility of a model is to evaluate its average performance over an entire population of interest. In many settings, it is also critical that the model makes good predictions within predefined subpopulations. For instance, showing that a model is fair or equitable requires evaluating the models performance in different demographic subgroups. However, subpopulation performance metrics are typically computed using only data from that subgroup, resulting in higher variance estimates for smaller groups. We devise a procedure to measure subpopulation performance that can be more sample-efficient than the typical subsample estimates. We propose using an evaluation model $-$ a model that describes the conditional distribution of the predictive model score $-$ to form model-based metric (MBM) estimates. Our procedure incorporates model checking and validation, and we propose a computationally efficient approximation of the traditional nonparametric bootstrap to form confidence intervals. We evaluate MBMs on two main tasks: a semi-synthetic setting where ground truth metrics are available and a real-world hospital readmission prediction task. We find that MBMs consistently produce more accurate and lower variance estimates of model performance for small subpopulations.
The Adaptive Poisson-Boltzmann Solver (APBS) software was developed to solve the equations of continuum electrostatics for large biomolecular assemblages that has provided impact in the study of a broad range of chemical, biological, and biomedical applications. APBS addresses three key technology challenges for understanding solvation and electrostatics in biomedical applications: accurate and efficient models for biomolecular solvation and electrostatics, robust and scalable software for applying those theories to biomolecular systems, and mechanisms for sharing and analyzing biomolecular electrostatics data in the scientific community. To address new research applications and advancing computational capabilities, we have continually updated APBS and its suite of accompanying software since its release in 2001. In this manuscript, we discuss the models and capabilities that have recently been implemented within the APBS software package including: a Poisson-Boltzmann analytical and a semi-analytical solver, an optimized boundary element solver, a geometry-based geometric flow solvation model, a graph theory based algorithm for determining p$K_a$ values, and an improved web-based visualization tool for viewing electrostatics.
The Jarzynski equality and the fluctuation theorem relate equilibrium free energy differences to non-equilibrium measurements of the work. These relations extend to single-molecule experiments that have probed the finite-time thermodynamics of proteins and nucleic acids. The effects of experimental error and instrument noise have not previously been considered. Here, we present a Bayesian formalism for estimating free-energy changes from non-equilibrium work measurements that compensates for instrument noise and combines data from multiple driving protocols. We reanalyze a recent set of experiments in which a single RNA hairpin is unfolded and refolded using optical tweezers at three different rates. Interestingly, the fastest and farthest-from-equilibrium measurements contain the least instrumental noise, and therefore provide a more accurate estimate of the free energies than a few slow, more noisy, near-equilibrium measurements. The methods we propose here will extend the scope of single-molecule experiments; they can be used in the analysis of data from measurements with AFM, optical, and magnetic tweezers.
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