No Arabic abstract
A new and automated method is presented for the analysis of high-resolution absorption spectra. Three established numerical methods are unified into one artificial intelligence process: a genetic algorithm (GVPFIT); non-linear least-squares with parameter constraints (VPFIT); and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The method has broad application but here we apply it specifically to the problem of measuring the fine structure constant at high redshift. For this we need objectivity and reproducibility. GVPFIT is also motivated by the importance of obtaining a large statistical sample of measurements of $Deltaalpha/alpha$. Interactive analyses are both time consuming and complex and automation makes obtaining a large sample feasible. In contrast to previous methodologies, we use BMA to derive results using a large set of models and show that this procedure is more robust than a human picking a single preferred model since BMA avoids the systematic uncertainties associated with model choice. Numerical simulations provide stringent tests of the whole process and we show using both real and simulated spectra that the unified automated fitting procedure out-performs a human interactive analysis. The method should be invaluable in the context of future instrumentation like ESPRESSO on the VLT and indeed future ELTs. We apply the method to the $z_{abs} = 1.8389$ absorber towards the $z_{em} = 2.145$ quasar J110325-264515. The derived constraint of $Deltaalpha/alpha = 3.3 pm 2.9 times 10^{-6}$ is consistent with no variation and also consistent with the tentative spatial variation reported in Webb et al (2011) and King et al (2012).
We present a new `supercalibration technique for measuring systematic distortions in the wavelength scales of high resolution spectrographs. By comparing spectra of `solar twin stars or asteroids with a reference laboratory solar spectrum, distortions in the standard thorium--argon calibration can be tracked with $sim$10 m s$^{-1}$ precision over the entire optical wavelength range on scales of both echelle orders ($sim$50--100 AA) and entire spectrographs arms ($sim$1000--3000 AA). Using archival spectra from the past 20 years we have probed the supercalibration history of the VLT--UVES and Keck--HIRES spectrographs. We find that systematic errors in their wavelength scales are ubiquitous and substantial, with long-range distortions varying between typically $pm$200 m s$^{-1}$ per 1000 AA. We apply a simple model of these distortions to simulated spectra that characterize the large UVES and HIRES quasar samples which previously indicated possible evidence for cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant, $alpha$. The spurious deviations in $alpha$ produced by the model closely match important aspects of the VLT--UVES quasar results at all redshifts and partially explain the HIRES results, though not self-consistently at all redshifts. That is, the apparent ubiquity, size and general characteristics of the distortions are capable of significantly weakening the evidence for variations in $alpha$ from quasar absorption lines.
We statistically analyse a recent sample of data points measuring the fine-structure constant alpha (relative to the terrestrial value) in quasar absorption systems. Using different statistical techniques, we find general agreement with previous authors that a dipole model is a well-justified fit to the data. We determine the significance of the dipole fit relative to that of a simple monopole fit, discuss the consistency of the interpretation, and test alternate models for potential variation of alpha against the data. Using a simple analysis we find that the monopole term (the constant offset in (delta alpha)/alpha) may be caused by non-terrestrial magnesium isotope abundances in the absorbers. Finally we test the domain-wall model against the data.
Measurements of the fine-structure constant alpha require methods from across subfields and are thus powerful tests of the consistency of theory and experiment in physics. Using the recoil frequency of cesium-133 atoms in a matter-wave interferometer, we recorded the most accurate measurement of the fine-structure constant to date: alpha = 1/137.035999046(27) at 2.0 x 10^-10 accuracy. Using multiphoton interactions (Bragg diffraction and Bloch oscillations), we demonstrate the largest phase (12 million radians) of any Ramsey-Borde interferometer and control systematic effects at a level of 0.12 parts per billion. Comparison with Penning trap measurements of the electron gyromagnetic anomaly ge-2 via the Standard Model of particle physics is now limited by the uncertainty in ge-2; a 2.5 sigma tension rejects dark photons as the reason for the unexplained part of the muons magnetic moment at a 99 percent confidence level. Implications for dark-sector candidates and electron substructure may be a sign of physics beyond the Standard Model that warrants further investigation.
In the second paper of this series we extend our Bayesian reanalysis of the evidence for a cosmic variation of the fine structure constant to the semi-parametric modelling regime. By adopting a mixture of Dirichlet processes prior for the unexplained errors in each instrumental subgroup of the benchmark quasar dataset we go some way towards freeing our model selection procedure from the apparent subjectivity of a fixed distributional form. Despite the infinite-dimensional domain of the error hierarchy so constructed we are able to demonstrate a recursive scheme for marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis directly analogous to that presented in Paper I, thereby allowing the robustness of our posterior Bayes factors to hyper-parameter choice and model specification to be readily verified. In the course of this work we elucidate various similarities between unexplained error problems in the seemingly disparate fields of astronomy and clinical meta-analysis, and we highlight a number of sophisticated techniques for handling such problems made available by past research in the latter. It is our hope that the novel approach to semi-parametric model selection demonstrated herein may serve as a useful reference for others exploring this potentially difficult class of error model.