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Register a new userOn the Solar Component in the Observed Global Temperature Anomalies
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Stefano Sello
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In this paper, starting from the updated time series of global temperature anomalies, Ta, we show how the solar component affects the observed behavior using, as an indicator of solar activity, the Solar Sunspot Number SSN. The results that are found clearly show that the solar component has an important role and affects significantly the current observed stationary behavior of global temperature anomalies. The solar activity behavior and its future role will therefore be decisive in determining whether or not the restart of the increase of temperature anomalies observed since 1975 will occur.
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The variation with time from 1956-2002 of the globally averaged rate of ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere is deduced and shown to have a cyclic component of period roughly twice the 11 year solar cycle period. Long term variations in the global average surface temperature as a function of time since 1956 are found to have a similar cyclic component. The cyclic variations are also observed in the solar irradiance and in the mean daily sun spot number. The cyclic variation in the cosmic ray rate is observed to be delayed by 2-4 years relative to the temperature, the solar irradiance and daily sun spot variations suggesting that the origin of the correlation is more likely to be direct solar activity than cosmic rays. Assuming that the correlation is caused by such solar activity, we deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to this activity is $lesssim14%$ of the observed global warming.
The slow solar wind is typically characterized as having low Alfvenicity. However, Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observed predominately Alfvenic slow solar wind during several of its initial encounters. From its first encounter observations, about 55.3% of the slow solar wind inside 0.25 au is highly Alfvenic ($|sigma_C| > 0.7$) at current solar minimum, which is much higher than the fraction of quiet-Sun-associated highly Alfvenic slow wind observed at solar maximum at 1 au. Intervals of slow solar wind with different Alfvenicities seem to show similar plasma characteristics and temperature anisotropy distributions. Some low Alfvenicity slow wind intervals even show high temperature anisotropies, because the slow wind may experience perpendicular heating as fast wind does when close to the Sun. This signature is confirmed by Wind spacecraft measurements as we track PSP observations to 1 au. Further, with nearly 15 years of Wind measurements, we find that the distributions of plasma characteristics, temperature anisotropy and helium abundance ratio ($N_alpha/N_p$) are similar in slow winds with different Alfvenicities, but the distributions are different from those in the fast solar wind. Highly Alfvenic slow solar wind contains both helium-rich ($N_alpha/N_psim0.045$) and helium-poor ($N_alpha/N_psim0.015$) populations, implying it may originate from multiple source regions. These results suggest that highly Alfvenic slow solar wind shares similar temperature anisotropy and helium abundance properties with regular slow solar winds, and they thus should have multiple origins.
Fluctuations of solar wind magnetic field and plasma parameters exhibit a typical turbulence power spectrum with a spectral index ranging between $sim -5/3$ and $sim -3/2$. In particular, at $1$ AU, the magnetic field spectrum, observed within fast corotating streams, also shows a clear steepening for frequencies higher than the typical proton scales, of the order of $sim 3times10^{-1}$ Hz, and a flattening towards $1/f$ at frequencies lower than $sim 10^{-3}$ Hz. However, the current literature reports observations of the low-frequency break only for fast streams. Slow streams, as observed to date, have not shown a clear break, and this has commonly been attributed to slow wind intervals not being long enough. Actually, because of the longer transit time from the Sun, slow wind turbulence would be older and the frequency break would be shifted to lower frequencies with respect to fast wind. Based on this hypothesis, we performed a careful search for long-lasting slow wind intervals throughout $12$ years of Wind satellite measurements. Our search, based on stringent requirements not only on wind speed but also on the level of magnetic compressibility and Alfvenicity of the turbulent fluctuations, yielded $48$ slow wind streams lasting longer than $7$ days. This result allowed us to extend our study to frequencies sufficiently low and, for the first time in the literature, we are able to show that the $1/f$ magnetic spectral scaling is also present in the slow solar wind, provided the interval is long enough. However, this is not the case for the slow wind velocity spectrum, which keeps the typical Kolmogorov scaling throughout the analysed frequency range. After ruling out the possible role of compressibility and Alfvenicity for the 1/f scaling, a possible explanation in terms of magnetic amplitude saturation, as recently proposed in the literature, is suggested.
Aims: We present the first measurements of the solar-wind angular-momentum (AM) flux recorded by the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. Our aim is the validation of these measurements to support future studies of the Suns AM loss. Methods: We combine 60-minute averages of the proton bulk moments and the magnetic field measured by the Solar Wind Analyser (SWA) and the magnetometer (MAG) onboard Solar Orbiter. We calculate the AM flux per solid-angle element using data from the first orbit of the missions cruise phase during 2020. We separate the contributions from protons and from magnetic stresses to the total AM flux. Results: The AM flux varies significantly over time. The particle contribution typically dominates over the magnetic-field contribution during our measurement interval. The total AM flux shows the largest variation and is typically anti-correlated with the radial solar-wind speed. We identify a compression region, potentially associated with a co-rotating interaction region or a coronal mass ejection, that leads to a significant localised increase in the AM flux, yet without a significant increase in the AM per unit mass. We repeat our analysis using the density estimate from the Radio and Plasma Waves (RPW) instrument. Using this independent method, we find a decrease in the peaks of positive AM flux but otherwise consistent results. Conclusions: Our results largely agree with previous measurements of the solar-wind AM flux in terms of amplitude, variability, and dependence on radial solar-wind bulk speed. Our analysis highlights the potential for future, more detailed, studies of the solar winds AM and its other large-scale properties with data from Solar Orbiter. We emphasise the need to study the radial evolution and latitudinal dependence of the AM flux in combination with data from Parker Solar Probe and assets at heliocentric distances of 1 au and beyond.
In order to investigate the scope of uncertainty in projections of GCMs for Tehran province, a multi-model projection composed of 15 models is employed. The projected changes in minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation under the A1B scenario for Tehran province are investigated for 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. GCM projections for the study region are downscaled by the LARS-WG5 model. Uncertainty among the projections is evaluated from three perspectives: large-scale climate scenarios downscaled values, and mean decadal changes. 15 GCMs unanimously project an increasing trend in the temperature for the study region. Also, uncertainty in the projections for the summer months is greater than projection uncertainty for other months. The mean absolute surface temperature increase for the three periods is projected to be about 0.8{deg}C, 2.4{deg}C, and 3.8{deg}C in the summers, respectively. The uncertainty of the multi-model projections for precipitation in summer seasons, and the radiation in the springs and falls is higher than other seasons for the study region. Model projections indicate that for the three future periods and relative to their baseline period, springtime precipitation will decrease about 5%, 10%, and 20%, and springtime radiation will increase about 0.5%, 1.5%, and 3%, respectively. The projected mean decadal changes indicate an increase in temperature and radiation and a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the performance of the GCMs in simulating the baseline climate by the MOTP method does not indicate any distinct pattern among the GCMs for the study region.
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