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A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein numerical error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical challenges, including the design of statistical methods that enable the coherent propagation of probabilities through a (possibly deterministic) computational work-flow. This paper examines the case for probabilistic numerical methods in routine statistical computation. Our focus is on numerical integration, where a probabilistic integrator is equipped with a full distribution over its output that reflects the presence of an unknown numerical error. Our main technical contribution is to establish, for the first time, rates of posterior contraction for these methods. These show that probabilistic integrators can in principle enjoy the best of both worlds, leveraging the sampling efficiency of Monte Carlo methods whilst providing a principled route to assess the impact of numerical error on scientific conclusions. Several substantial applications are provided for illustration and critical evaluation, including examples from statistical modelling, computer graphics and a computer model for an oil reservoir.
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This article is the rejoinder for the paper Probabilistic Integration: A Role in Statistical Computation? to appear in Statistical Science with discussion. We would first like to thank the reviewers and many of our colleagues who helped shape this paper, the editor for selecting our paper for discussion, and of course all of the discussants for their thoughtful, insightful and constructive comments. In this rejoinder, we respond to some of the points raised by the discussants and comment further on the fundamental questions underlying the paper: (i) Should Bayesian ideas be used in numerical analysis?, and (ii) If so, what role should such approaches have in statistical computation?
Intermittent maps of the interval are simple and widely-studied models for chaos with slow mixing rates, but have been notoriously resistant to numerical study. In this paper we present an effective framework to compute many ergodic properties of these systems, in particular invariant measures and mean return times. The framework combines three ingredients that each harness the smooth structure of these systems induced maps: Abel functions to compute the action of the induced maps, Euler-Maclaurin summation to compute the pointwise action of their transfer operators, and Chebyshev Galerkin discretisations to compute the spectral data of the transfer operators. The combination of these techniques allows one to obtain exponential convergence of estimates for polynomially growing computational outlay, independent of the order of the maps neutral fixed point. This enables numerical exploration of intermittent dynamics in all parameter regimes, including in the infinite ergodic regime.
There is renewed interest in formulating integration as an inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian Quadrature, demonstrate impressive empirical performance but lack theoretical analysis. An important challenge is to reconcile these probabilistic integrators with rigorous convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present the first probabilistic integrator that admits such theoretical treatment, called Frank-Wolfe Bayesian Quadrature (FWBQ). Under FWBQ, convergence to the true value of the integral is shown to be exponential and posterior contraction rates are proven to be superexponential. In simulations, FWBQ is competitive with state-of-the-art methods and out-performs alternatives based on Frank-Wolfe optimisation. Our approach is applied to successfully quantify numerical error in the solution to a challenging model choice problem in cellular biology.
Archetypal analysis is an unsupervised learning method for exploratory data analysis. One major challenge that limits the applicability of archetypal analysis in practice is the inherent computational complexity of the existing algorithms. In this paper, we provide a novel approximation approach to partially address this issue. Utilizing probabilistic ideas from high-dimensional geometry, we introduce two preprocessing techniques to reduce the dimension and representation cardinality of the data, respectively. We prove that, provided the data is approximately embedded in a low-dimensional linear subspace and the convex hull of the corresponding representations is well approximated by a polytope with a few vertices, our method can effectively reduce the scaling of archetypal analysis. Moreover, the solution of the reduced problem is near-optimal in terms of prediction errors. Our approach can be combined with other acceleration techniques to further mitigate the intrinsic complexity of archetypal analysis. We demonstrate the usefulness of our results by applying our method to summarize several moderately large-scale datasets.
In this paper we introduce a design for an optical topological cluster state computer constructed exclusively from a single quantum component. Unlike previous efforts we eliminate the need for on demand, high fidelity photon sources and detectors and replace them with the same device utilised to create photon/photon entanglement. This introduces highly probabilistic elements into the optical architecture while maintaining complete specificity of the structure and operation for a large scale computer. Photons in this system are continually recycled back into the preparation network, allowing for a arbitrarily deep 3D cluster to be prepared using a comparatively small number of photonic qubits and consequently the elimination of high frequency, deterministic photon sources.
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