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Register a new userUnderstanding News Geography and Major Determinants of Global News Coverage of Disasters
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In this work, we reveal the structure of global news coverage of disasters and its determinants by using a large-scale news coverage dataset collected by the GDELT (Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone) project that monitors news media in over 100 languages from the whole world. Significant variables in our hierarchical (mixed-effect) regression model, such as the number of population, the political stability, the damage, and more, are well aligned with a series of previous research. Yet, strong regionalism we found in news geography highlights the necessity of the comprehensive dataset for the study of global news coverage.
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This study proposes a new method of incorporating emotions from newspaper articles into macroeconomic forecasts, attempting to forecast industrial production and consumer prices leveraging narrative and sentiment from global newspapers. For the most part, existing research includes positive and negative tone only to improve macroeconomic forecasts, focusing predominantly on large economies such as the US. These works use mainly anglophone sources of narrative, thus not capturing the entire complexity of the multitude of emotions contained in global news articles. This study expands the existing body of research by incorporating a wide array of emotions from newspapers around the world - extracted from the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT) - into macroeconomic forecasts. We present a thematic data filtering methodology based on a bi-directional long short term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) for extracting emotion scores from GDELT and demonstrate its effectiveness by comparing results for filtered and unfiltered data. We model industrial production and consumer prices across a diverse range of economies using an autoregressive framework, and find that including emotions from global newspapers significantly improves forecasts compared to three autoregressive benchmark models. We complement our forecasts with an interpretability analysis on distinct groups of emotions and find that emotions associated with happiness and anger have the strongest predictive power for the variables we predict.
Traditional media outlets are known to report political news in a biased way, potentially affecting the political beliefs of the audience and even altering their voting behaviors. Many researchers focus on automatically detecting and identifying media bias in the news, but only very few studies exist that systematically analyze how theses biases can be best visualized and communicated. We create three manually annotated datasets and test varying visualization strategies. The results show no strong effects of becoming aware of the bias of the treatment groups compared to the control group, although a visualization of hand-annotated bias communicated bias instances more effectively than a framing visualization. Showing participants an overview page, which opposes different viewpoints on the same topic, does not yield differences in respondents bias perception. Using a multilevel model, we find that perceived journalist bias is significantly related to perceived political extremeness and impartiality of the article.
Recent years have witnessed remarkable progress towards computational fake news detection. To mitigate its negative impact, we argue that it is critical to understand what user attributes potentially cause users to share fake news. The key to this causal-inference problem is to identify confounders -- variables that cause spurious associations between treatments (e.g., user attributes) and outcome (e.g., user susceptibility). In fake news dissemination, confounders can be characterized by fake news sharing behavior that inherently relates to user attributes and online activities. Learning such user behavior is typically subject to selection bias in users who are susceptible to share news on social media. Drawing on causal inference theories, we first propose a principled approach to alleviating selection bias in fake news dissemination. We then consider the learned unbiased fake news sharing behavior as the surrogate confounder that can fully capture the causal links between user attributes and user susceptibility. We theoretically and empirically characterize the effectiveness of the proposed approach and find that it could be useful in protecting society from the perils of fake news.
The newly released Orange D4D mobile phone data base provides new insights into the use of mobile technology in a developing country. Here we perform a series of spatial data analyses that reveal important geographic aspects of mobile phone use in Cote dIvoire. We first map the locations of base stations with respect to the population distribution and the number and duration of calls at each base station. On this basis, we estimate the energy consumed by the mobile phone network. Finally, we perform an analysis of inter-city mobility, and identify high-traffic roads in the country.
The wide spread of fake news in social networks is posing threats to social stability, economic development and political democracy etc. Numerous studies have explored the effective detection approaches of online fake news, while few works study the intrinsic propagation and cognition mechanisms of fake news. Since the development of cognitive science paves a promising way for the prevention of fake news, we present a new research area called Cognition Security (CogSec), which studies the potential impacts of fake news to human cognition, ranging from misperception, untrusted knowledge acquisition, targeted opinion/attitude formation, to biased decision making, and investigates the effective ways for fake news debunking. CogSec is a multidisciplinary research field that leverages knowledge from social science, psychology, cognition science, neuroscience, AI and computer science. We first propose related definitions to characterize CogSec and review the literature history. We further investigate the key research challenges and techniques of CogSec, including human-content cognition mechanism, social influence and opinion diffusion, fake news detection and malicious bot detection. Finally, we summarize the open issues and future research directions, such as early detection of fake news, explainable fake news debunking, social contagion and diffusion models of fake news, and so on.
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