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Register a new userLimits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes
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Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux was present in each hemisphere at the start of the previous cycle and how much net magnetic flux was transported across the equator during the cycle. Some of this transport is associated with the random walk of magnetic flux tubes subject to granular and supergranular buffeting, some of it is due to the advection caused by systematic cross-equatorial flows such as those associated with the inflows into active regions, and some crosses the equator during the emergence process. We aim to determine how much of the cross-equatorial transport is due to small-scale disorganized motions (treated as diffusion) compared with other processes such as emergence flux across the equator. We measure the cross-equatorial flux transport using Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms, estimating both the total and diffusive fluxes. Occasionally a large sunspot group, with a large tilt angle emerges crossing the equator, with flux from the two polarities in opposite hemispheres. The largest of these events carry a substantial amount of flux across the equator (compared to the magnetic flux near the poles). We call such events cross-equatorial flux plumes. There are very few such large events during a cycle, which introduces an uncertainty into the determination of the amount of magnetic flux transported across the equator in any particular cycle. As the amount of flux which crosses the equator determines the amount of net flux in each hemisphere, it follows that the cross-equatorial plumes introduce an uncertainty in the prediction of the net flux in each hemisphere. This leads to an uncertainty in predictions of the strength of the following cycle.
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Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) contributes to the perturbation of solar wind in the heliosphere. Thus, depending on the different phases of the solar cycle and the rate of CME occurrence, contribution of CMEs to solar wind parameters near the Earth changes. In the present study, we examine the long term occurrence rate of CMEs, their speeds, angular widths and masses. We attempt to find correlation between near sun parameters, determined using white light images from coronagraphs, with solar wind measurements near the Earth from in-situ instruments. Importantly, we attempt to find what fraction of the averaged solar wind mass near the Earth is provided by the CMEs during different phases of the solar cycles.
Solar coronal plumes long seemed to possess a simple geometry supporting spatially coherent, stable outflow without significant fine structure. Recent high-resolution observations have challenged this picture by revealing numerous transient, small-scale, collimated outflows (jetlets) at the base of plumes. The dynamic filamentary structure of solar plumes above these outflows, and its relationship with the overall plume structure, have remained largely unexplored. We analyzed the statistics of continuously observed fine structure inside a single representative bright plume within a mid-latitude coronal hole during 2016 July 2-3. By applying advanced edge-enhancement and spatiotemporal analysis techniques to extended series of high-resolution images from the Solar Dynamics Observatorys Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, we determined that the plume was composed of numerous time-evolving filamentary substructures, referred to as plumelets in this paper, that accounted for most of the plume emission. The number of simultaneously identifiable plumelets was positively correlated with plume brightness, peaked in the fully formed plume, and remained saturated thereafter. The plumelets had transverse widths of 10 Mm and intermittently supported upwardly propagating periodic disturbances with phase speeds of 190-260 km/s and longitudinal wavelengths of 55-65 Mm. The characteristic frequency (3.5 mHz) is commensurate with that of solar p-modes. Oscillations in neighboring plumelets are uncorrelated, indicating that the waves could be driven by p-mode flows at spatial scales smaller than the plumelet separation. Multiple independent sources of outflow within a single coronal plume should impart significant fine structure to the solar wind that may be detectable by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.
A hemispheric preference in the dominant sign of magnetic helicity has been observed in numerous features in the solar atmosphere: i.e., left-handed/right-handed helicity in the northern/southern hemisphere. The relative importance of different physical processes which may contribute to the observed hemispheric sign preference (HSP) of magnetic helicity is still under debate. Here, we estimate magnetic helicity flux ($dH/dt$) across the photospheric surface for 4,802 samples of 1,105 unique active regions (ARs) that appeared over an 8-year period from 2010 to 2017 during solar cycle 24, using photospheric vector magnetic field observations by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The estimates of $dH/dt$ show that 63% and 65% of the investigated AR samples in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, follow the HSP. We also find a trend that the HSP of $dH/dt$ increases from ~50-60% up to ~70-80% as ARs (1) appear at the earlier inclining phase of the solar cycle or higher latitudes; (2) have larger values of $|dH/dt|$, the total unsigned magnetic flux, and the average plasma flow speed. These observational findings support the enhancement of the HSP mainly by the Coriolis force acting on a buoyantly rising and expanding flux tube through the turbulent convection zone. In addition, the differential rotation on the solar surface as well as the tachocline $alpha$-effect of flux-transport dynamo may reinforce the HSP for ARs at higher latitudes.
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. Their implicit assumption is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. Finally, instead of an analysis of observational data alone, model based predictions use physically (more or less) consistent dynamo models in their attempts to predict solar activity. In their overall performance precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts have not yet have had a chance to prove their skills. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is that of K. Schatten et al., whose approach is mainly based on the polar field precursor. The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity.
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is the polar field precursor. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts are quickly coming into their own, and, despite not having a long proven record, their predictions are received with increasing confidence by the community.
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