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In the United States electoral system, a candidate is elected indirectly by winning a majority of electoral votes cast by individual states, the election usually being decided by the votes cast by a small number of swing states where the two candidates historically have roughly equal probabilities of winning. The effective value of a swing state in deciding the election is determined not only by the number of its electoral votes but by the frequency of its appearance in the set of winning partitions of the electoral college. Since the electoral vote values of swing states are not identical, the presence or absence of a state in a winning partition is generally correlated with the frequency of appearance of other states and, hence, their effective values. We quantify the effective value of states by an {sl electoral susceptibility}, $chi_j$, the variation of the winning probability with the cost of changing the probability of winning state $j$. We study $chi_j$ for realistic data accumulated for the 2012 U.S. presidential election and for a simple model with a Zipfs law type distribution of electoral votes. In the latter model we show that the susceptibility for small states is largest in one-sided electoral contests and smallest in close contests. We draw an analogy to models of entropically driven interactions in poly-disperse colloidal solutions.
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In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail, in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Here, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the co-susceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of co-susceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.
How are people linked in a highly connected society? Since in many networks a power-law (scale-free) node-degree distribution can be observed, power-law might be seen as a universal characteristics of networks. But this study of communication in the Flickr social online network reveals that power-law node-degree distributions are restricted to only sparsely connected networks. More densely connected networks, by contrast, show an increasing divergence from power-law. This work shows that this observation is consistent with the classic idea from social sciences that similarity is the driving factor behind communication in social networks. The strong relation between communication strength and node similarity could be confirmed by analyzing the Flickr network. It also is shown that node similarity as a network formation model can reproduce the characteristics of different network densities and hence can be used as a model for describing the topological transition from weakly to strongly connected societies.
Spectral analysis has been successfully applied at the detection of community structure of networks, respectively being based on the adjacency matrix, the standard Laplacian matrix, the normalized Laplacian matrix, the modularity matrix, the correlation matrix and several other variants of these matrices. However, the comparison between these spectral methods is less reported. More importantly, it is still unclear which matrix is more appropriate for the detection of community structure. This paper answers the question through evaluating the effectiveness of these five matrices against the benchmark networks with heterogeneous distributions of node degree and community size. Test results demonstrate that the normalized Laplacian matrix and the correlation matrix significantly outperform the other three matrices at identifying the community structure of networks. This indicates that it is crucial to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of node degree when using spectral analysis for the detection of community structure. In addition, to our surprise, the modularity matrix exhibits very similar performance to the adjacency matrix, which indicates that the modularity matrix does not gain desired benefits from using the configuration model as reference network with the consideration of the node degree heterogeneity.
Mean-field analysis is an important tool for understanding dynamics on complex networks. However, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the question of whether mean-field predictions are accurate, and this is particularly true for real-world networks with clustering and modular structure. In this paper, we compare mean-field predictions to numerical simulation results for dynamical processes running on 21 real-world networks and demonstrate that the accuracy of the theory depends not only on the mean degree of the networks but also on the mean first-neighbor degree. We show that mean-field theory can give (unexpectedly) accurate results for certain dynamics on disassortative real-world networks even when the mean degree is as low as 4.
We show how the prevailing majority opinion in a population can be rapidly reversed by a small fraction p of randomly distributed committed agents who consistently proselytize the opposing opinion and are immune to influence. Specifically, we show that when the committed fraction grows beyond a critical value p_c approx 10%, there is a dramatic decrease in the time, T_c, taken for the entire population to adopt the committed opinion. In particular, for complete graphs we show that when p < p_c, T_c sim exp(alpha(p)N), while for p > p_c, T_c sim ln N. We conclude with simulation results for ErdH{o}s-Renyi random graphs and scale-free networks which show qualitatively similar behavior.
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