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Register a new userThe Hubble constant and new discoveries in cosmology
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We report the outcome of a 3-day workshop on the Hubble constant (H_0) that took place during February 6-8 2012 at the Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, on the campus of Stanford University. The participants met to address the following questions. Are there compelling scientific reasons to obtain more precise and more accurate measurements of H_0 than currently available? If there are, how can we achieve this goal? The answers that emerged from the workshop are (1) better measurements of H_0 provide critical independent constraints on dark energy, spatial curvature of the Universe, neutrino physics, and validity of general relativity, (2) a measurement of H_0 to 1% in both precision and accuracy, supported by rigorous error budgets, is within reach for several methods, and (3) multiple paths to independent determinations of H_0 are needed in order to access and control systematics.
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The Hubble constant Ho describes not only the expansion of local space at redshift z ~ 0, but is also a fundamental parameter determining the evolution of the universe. Recent measurements of Ho anchored on Cepheid observations have reached a precision of several percent. However, this problem is so important that confirmation from several methods is needed to better constrain Ho and, with it, dark energy and the curvature of space. A particularly direct method involves the determination of distances to local galaxies far enough to be part of the Hubble flow through water vapor (H2O) masers orbiting nuclear supermassive black holes. The goal of this article is to describe the relevance of Ho with respect to fundamental cosmological questions and to summarize recent progress of the the `Megamaser Cosmology Project (MCP) related to the Hubble constant.
The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard $Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, that has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in portion the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the $4.4sigma$ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting new physics models that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade experiments will be crucial.
We present a measurement of the Hubble constant made using geometric distance measurements to megamaser-hosting galaxies. We have applied an improved approach for fitting maser data and obtained better distance estimates for four galaxies previously published by the Megamaser Cosmology Project: UGC 3789, NGC 6264, NGC 6323, and NGC 5765b. Combining these updated distance measurements with those for the maser galaxies CGCG 074-064 and NGC 4258, and assuming a fixed velocity uncertainty of 250 km s$^{-1}$ associated with peculiar motions, we constrain the Hubble constant to be $H_0 = 73.9 pm 3.0$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ independent of distance ladders and the cosmic microwave background. This best value relies solely on maser-based distance and velocity measurements, and it does not use any peculiar velocity corrections. Different approaches for correcting peculiar velocities do not modify $H_0$ by more than ${pm}1{sigma}$, with the full range of best-fit Hubble constant values spanning 71.8-76.9 km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. We corroborate prior indications that the local value of $H_0$ exceeds the early-Universe value, with a confidence level varying from 95-99% for different treatments of the peculiar velocities.
In relativistic inhomogeneous cosmology, structure formation couples to average cosmological expansion. A conservative approach to modelling this assumes an Einstein--de Sitter model (EdS) at early times and extrapolates this forward in cosmological time as a background model against which average properties of todays Universe can be measured. This requires adopting an early-epoch--normalised background Hubble constant $H_1^{bg}$. Here, we show that the $Lambda$CDM model can be used as an observational proxy to estimate $H_1^{bg}$ rather than choose it arbitrarily. We assume (i) an EdS model at early times; (ii) a zero dark energy parameter; (iii) bi-domain scalar averaging---division of the spatial sections into over- and underdense regions; and (iv) virialisation (stable clustering) of collapsed regions. We find $H_1^{bg}= 37.7 pm 0.4$ km/s/Mpc (random error only) based on a Planck $Lambda$CDM observational proxy. Moreover, since the scalar-averaged expansion rate is expected to exceed the (extrapolated) background expansion rate, the expected age of the Universe should be much less than $2/(3 H_1^{bg}) = 17.3$ Gyr. The maximum stellar age of Galactic Bulge microlensed low-mass stars (most likely: 14.7 Gyr; 68% confidence: 14.0--15.0 Gyr) suggests an age about a Gyr older than the (no-backreaction) $Lambda$CDM estimate.
The $Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter model ($Lambda$CDM) represents the current standard model in cosmology. Within this, there is a tension between the value of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, inferred from local distance indicators and the angular scale of fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). We investigate whether the tension is significant enough to warrant new physics in the form of modifying or adding energy components to the standard cosmological model. We find that late time dark energy explanations are slightly disfavoured whereas a pre-CMB decoupling extra dark energy component has a marginally positive Bayesian evidence. A constant equation of state of the additional early energy density is constrained to 0.086$^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$. Although this value deviates significantly from 1/3, valid for dark radiation, the latter is not disfavoured based on the Bayesian evidence. If the tension persists, future estimates of $H_0$ at the 1$%$ level will be able to decisively determine which of the proposed explanations is favoured.
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