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Register a new userNon-Gaussian Posteriors arising from Marginal Detections
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We show that in cases of marginal detections (~ 3sigma), such as that of Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) in cosmology, the often-used Gaussian approximation to the full likelihood is very poor, especially beyond ~3sigma. This can radically alter confidence intervals on parameters and implies that one cannot naively extrapolate 1sigma-errorbars to 3sigma, and beyond. We propose a simple fitting formula which corrects for this effect in posterior probabilities arising from marginal detections. Alternatively the full likelihood should be used for parameter estimation rather than the Gaussian approximation of a just mean and an error.
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Cosmological phase transitions in the primordial universe can produce anisotropic stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds (GWB), similar to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). For adiabatic perturbations, the fluctuations in GWB follow those in the CMB, but if primordial fluctuations carry an isocurvature component, this need no longer be true. It is shown that in non-minimal inflationary and reheating settings, primordial isocurvature can survive in GWB and exhibit significant non-Gaussianity (NG) in contrast to the CMB, while obeying current observational bounds. While probing such NG GWB is at best a marginal possibility at LISA, there is much greater scope at future proposed detectors such as DECIGO and BBO. It is even possible that the first observations of inflation-era NG could be made with gravitational wave detectors as opposed to the CMB or Large-Scale Structure surveys.
We compute the effect of primordial non-Gaussianity on the halo mass function, using excursion set theory. In the presence of non-Gaussianity the stochastic evolution of the smoothed density field, as a function of the smoothing scale, is non-markovian and beside local terms that generalize Press-Schechter (PS) theory, there are also memory terms, whose effect on the mass function can be computed using the formalism developed in the first paper of this series. We find that, when computing the effect of the three-point correlator on the mass function, a PS-like approach which consists in neglecting the cloud-in-cloud problem and in multiplying the final result by a fudge factor close to 2, is in principle not justified. When computed correctly in the framework of excursion set theory, in fact, the local contribution vanishes (for all odd-point correlators the contribution of the image gaussian cancels the Press-Schechter contribution rather than adding up), and the result comes entirely from non-trivial memory terms which are absent in PS theory. However it turns out that, in the limit of large halo masses, where the effect of non-Gaussianity is more relevant, these memory terms give a contribution which is the the same as that computed naively with PS theory, plus subleading terms depending on derivatives of the three-point correlator. We finally combine these results with the diffusive barrier model developed in the second paper of this series, and we find that the resulting mass function reproduces recent N-body simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions, without the introduction of any ad hoc parameter.
The standard model of cosmology is founded on the basis that the expansion rate of the universe is accelerating at present --- as was inferred originally from the Hubble diagram of Type Ia supernovae. There exists now a much bigger database of supernovae so we can perform rigorous statistical tests to check whether these standardisable candles indeed indicate cosmic acceleration. Taking account of the empirical procedure by which corrections are made to their absolute magnitudes to allow for the varying shape of the light curve and extinction by dust, we find, rather surprisingly, that the data are still quite consistent with a constant rate of expansion.
We carry out a numerical calculation of the bispectrum in generalised trajectories of canonical, single--field inflation. The trajectories are generated in the Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) formalism based on Hubble Slow Roll (HSR) parameters. The calculation allows generally shape and scale dependent bispectra, or dimensionless $f_{NL}$, in the out-of-slow-roll regime. The distributions of $f_{NL}$ for various shapes and HSR proposals are shown as an example of how this procedure can be used within the context of Monte Carlo exploration of inflationary trajectories. We also show how allowing out-of-slow-roll behaviour can lead to a bispectrum that is relatively large for equilateral shapes.
We explore possible non-Gaussian features of primordial gravitational waves by constructing model-independent templates for nonlinearity parameters of tensor bispectrum. Our analysis is based on Effective Field Theory of inflation that relies on no particular model as such and thus the results are quite generic. The analysis further reveals that chances of detecting squeezed limit tensor bispectrum are fairly higher than equilateral limit. We also discuss prospects of detectability in upcoming CMB missions.
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