Economic Possibilities to Achieve Self-sufficiency of Wheat in Syria


Abstract in English

The research aimed to identify the current status of wheat in Syria during the period (2000- 2012), and to study the energy of production and consumption, gap size, besides self-sufficiency ratio of wheat, as well as to highlight on the average per capita of the available for consumption, the annual average income per capita, and the annual population increase. The research also indicated the most important factors affecting the production and domestic consumption of wheat. The results had showed that the general trend of total production, cultivated area and productivity is a descending direction during the studied period. Also, the consumed amount of wheat during the studied period increased, with an average of (4084.42) thousand tons annually, while the average of domestic production amounted to about (4008.38) thousand tons for the same period. Besides the food gap of wheat ranged between a minimum value at (17.3) thousand tons in 2000, and a maximum value about 1660 thousand tons in 2009, the year in which consumption reached its maximum value in the time of studied series. The self-sufficiency ranged from (69.04%) in 2009 and (131.03)% in 2007 with an average of about (99.1)% during the period (2000 - 2012).

References used

Belaid, A. (2000). Durum wheat in wana: Production, trade, and gains from technological change. In option mediterraneennes L`amelioration du blédur dans la region mediterraneenne: Nouveaux defis. Eds C. Royo, M.M. Nachit, N.DI Fonzo, J.L. Araus. (CIHEAM; Centre Udl – IRTA, CIMMYT,ICARDA) , 35- 49 p
Pankratz, A. (1983) “Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models”. JOHN WILEY & SONS, Pp. 99

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