The use of Markov chains in studying the changes in index numbers for consumer prices in Syria


Abstract in English

We performed in this research forecast in the direction of the index numbers for consumer prices for ( food- clothes and shoes – education -health- transportation communications - housing water, electricity, gas and other fuel oils), by using Markov chains in estimating with dependence on monthly data were taken from the central bureau of statistics in Syria during the period (1/1/2010 , 31/12/2011) , So results were analyzed by calculating the vector of states probabilities in the moment 0 t and using it with matrix of transition probabilities states transition probability for forecasting in the vector of states probabilities on the long and short range for knowing the direction at which the index numbers may behave in the future. The most important results of the study were instability of the beam of the transition probabilities (high low stability) during the prediction period, as well as for the matrix of transition probabilities.

References used

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