Rainfall Prediction in Tartous Station Located in the Southern Part of the Syrian Coast


Abstract in English

Rainfall is considered as one of the most difficult and complex elements of the hydrological cycle, to understand and model, due to the complexity of air operations that generate rain. The importance of research comes from the direct relationship between the rainfall amount and economic & social activities of the population, planning scopes of the water resources management, particularly with respect to the agricultural development. The research aims to highlight the rainfall amounts in Tartous station which is located in the southern part of the Syrian coast, and applying one model of Box-Jenkins models for the purpose of predicting future rainfall amounts. Multiple Arima models have been tested. The results showed that the model SARIMA (3,0,4) was the best one. Data were divided into 43 years to build the model and eight years to test it. The test results gave high accuracy in the performance, and the model was used to predict the values of annual rainfall for the next twenty years.

References used

FRENCH, M. N., KRAJEWSKI, W. F., AND CUYKENDALL, R. R., 1992, "Rainfall forecasting in space and time using neural network", J. Hydrol., 137, 1–31
GWANGSEOB, K. AND ANA, P. B., 2001, "Quantitative flood forecasting using multi sensor data and neural networks", Journal of Hydrology, 246, 45–62
BOX, G.E.P., G.M., JENKINS, 1976, "Series Analysis Forecasting and Control", Prentice-Hall Inc., London

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