Distribution of the Largest Aftershocks in Branching Models of Triggered Seismicity: Theory of the Universal Baths law


Abstract in English

Using the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock over all generations. This average magnitude difference is found empirically to be independent of the mainshock magnitude and equal to 1.2, a universal behavior known as Baths law. Our theory shows that Baths law holds only sufficiently close to the critical regime of the ETAS branching process. Allowing for error bars +- 0.1 for Baths constant value around 1.2, our exact analytical treatment of Baths law provides new constraints on the productivity exponent alpha and the branching ratio n: $0.9 <= alpha <= 1$ and 0.8 <= n <= 1. We propose a novel method for measuring alpha based on the predicted renormalization of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of the magnitudes of the largest aftershock. We also introduce the ``second Baths law for foreshocks: the probability that a main earthquake turns out to be the foreshock does not depend on its magnitude.

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