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Authors
Gioacchino Ranucci
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The need to unravel modulations hidden in noisy time series of experimental data is a well known problem, traditionally attacked through a variety of methods, among which a popular tool is the so called Lomb-Scargle periodogram. Recently, for a class of problems in the solar neutrino field, it has been proposed an alternative maximum likelihood based approach, intended to overcome some intrinsic limitations affecting the Lomb-Scargle implementation. This work is focused to highlight the features of the likelihood methodology, introducing in particular an analytical approach to assess the quantitative significance of the potential modulation signals. As an example, the proposed method is applied to the time series of the measured values of the 8B neutrino flux released by the Super-Kamiokande collaboration, and the results compared with those of previous analysis performed on the same data sets. It is also examined in detail the comparison between the Lomb-Scargle and the likelihood methods, giving in the appendix the complete demonstration of their close relationship.
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In this work a detailed spectral analysis of the time series of the 8B solar neutrino flux published by the Super-Kamiokande Collaboration is presented, performed through a likelihood scan approach. Preliminarily a careful review of the analysis methodology is given, showing that the traditional periodicity search via the Lomb-Scargle periodogram is a special case of a more general likelihood based method. Since the data are published together with the relevant asymmetric errors, it is then shown how the likelihood analysis can be performed either with or without a prior error averaging. A key point of this work is the detailed illustration of the mathematical model describing the statistical properties of the estimated spectra obtained in the various cases, which is also validated through extensive Monte Carlo computations; the model includes a calculation for the prediction of the possible alias effects. In the successive investigation of the data, such a model is used to derive objective, mathematical predictions which are quantitatively compared with the features observed in the experimental spectra. This article clearly demonstrates that the handling of the errors is the origin of the discrepancy between published null observations and claimed significant periodicity in the same SK-I data sample. Moreover, the comprehensive likelihood analysis with asymmetric errors developed in this work provides results which cannot exclude the null hypothesis of constant rate, even though some indications stemming from the model at odd with such conclusion point towards the desirability of additional investigations with alternative methods to shed further light on the characteristics of the data.
Comparison of solar-neutrino signals in SNO and Super-Kamiokande (SK) detectors results in discovery of $ u_e to u_{mu,tau}$ oscillations at level $3.1 - 3.3 sigma$ cite{SNO}. This comparison involves the assumption of neutrino spectrum and a choice for the thresholds of detection in both experiments. In this Letter we obtain an exact formula for the comparison of the signals which is valid for arbitrary spectra and thresholds. We find that the no-oscillation hypothesis is excluded at 3.3$sigma$. If the energy-dependent component of the survival probability for electron neutrinos is small as compared with the average value, i.e. in the case of small distortion of the observed spectrum, the oscillation hypothesis can also be tested to similar accuracy. The oscillation to sterile neutrino only, is excluded at $3.3 sigma$ level, and oscillation to active neutrinos is confirmed at the same level, though with some reservations.
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