Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userDynamical patterns of epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks
63
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns. We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous in all networks characterized by diverging degree fluctuations, independently of the structure of the connectivity correlation functions characterizing the population network. By means of analytical and numerical results, we show that the outbreak time evolution follows a precise hierarchical dynamics. Once reached the most highly connected hubs, the infection pervades the network in a progressive cascade across smaller degree classes. Finally, we show the influence of the initial conditions and the relevance of statistical results in single case studies concerning heterogeneous networks. The emerging theoretical framework appears of general interest in view of the recently observed abundance of natural networks with complex topological features and might provide useful insights for the development of adaptive strategies aimed at epidemic containment.
rate research
Read More
We study the effect of the connectivity pattern of complex networks on the propagation dynamics of epidemics. The growth time scale of outbreaks is inversely proportional to the network degree fluctuations, signaling that epidemics spread almost instantaneously in networks with scale-free degree distributions. This feature is associated with an epidemic propagation that follows a precise hierarchical dynamics. Once the highly connected hubs are reached, the infection pervades the network in a progressive cascade across smaller degree classes. The present results are relevant for the development of adaptive containment strategies.
We derive the spectral properties of adjacency matrix of complex networks and of their Laplacian by the replica method combined with a dynamical population algorithm. By assuming the order parameter to be a product of Gaussian distributions, the present theory provides a solution for the non linear integral equations for the spectra density in random matrix theory of the spectra of sparse random matrices making a step forward with respect to the effective medium approximation (EMA) . We extend these results also to weighted networks with weight-degree correlations
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyze these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters, and the number of intercommunity links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies.
In this chapter we discuss how the results developed within the theory of fractals and Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) can be fruitfully exploited as ingredients of adaptive network models. In order to maintain the presentation self-contained, we first review the basic ideas behind fractal theory and SOC. We then briefly review some results in the field of complex networks, and some of the models that have been proposed. Finally, we present a self-organized model recently proposed by Garlaschelli et al. [Nat. Phys. 3, 813 (2007)] that couples the fitness network model defined by Caldarelli et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 258702 (2002)] with the evolution model proposed by Bak and Sneppen [Phys. Rev. Lett. 71, 4083 (1993)] as a prototype of SOC. Remarkably, we show that the results obtained for the two models separately change dramatically when they are coupled together. This indicates that self-organized networks may represent an entirely novel class of complex systems, whose properties cannot be straightforwardly understood in terms of what we have learnt so far.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
