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Register a new userStochastic stability in spatial games
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Jacek Miekisz
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We discuss similarities and differences between systems of interacting players maximizing their individual payoffs and particles minimizing their interaction energy. Long-run behavior of stochastic dynamics of spatial games with multiple Nash equilibria is analyzed. In particular, we construct an example of a spatial game with three strategies, where stochastic stability of Nash equilibria depends on the number of players and the kind of dynamics.
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Field theory tools are applied to analytically study fluctuation and correlation effects in spatially extended stochastic predator-prey systems. In the mean-field rate equation approximation, the classic Lotka-Volterra model is characterized by neutral cycles in phase space, describing undamped oscillations for both predator and prey populations. In contrast, Monte Carlo simulations for stochastic two-species predator-prey reaction systems on regular lattices display complex spatio-temporal structures associated with persistent erratic population oscillations. The Doi-Peliti path integral representation of the master equation for stochastic particle interaction models is utilized to arrive at a field theory action for spatial Lotka-Volterra models in the continuum limit. In the species coexistence phase, a perturbation expansion with respect to the nonlinear predation rate is employed to demonstrate that spatial degrees of freedom and stochastic noise induce instabilities toward structure formation, and to compute the fluctuation corrections for the oscillation frequency and diffusion coefficient. The drastic downward renormalization of the frequency and the enhanced diffusivity are in excellent qualitative agreement with Monte Carlo simulation data.
We discuss long-run behavior of stochastic dynamics of many interacting agents. In particular, three-player spatial games are studied. The effect of the number of players and the noise level on the stochastic stability of Nash equilibria is investigated.
Recently, a first step was made by the authors towards a systematic investigation of the effect of reaction-step-size noise - uncertainty in the step size of the reaction - on the dynamics of stochastic populations. This was done by investigating the effect of bursty influx on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations. Here we extend this formalism to account for bursty reproduction processes, and improve the accuracy of the formalism to include subleading-order corrections. Bursty reproduction appears in various contexts, where notable examples include bursty viral production from infected cells, and reproduction of mammals involving varying number of offspring. The main question we quantitatively address is how bursty reproduction affects the overall fate of the population. We consider two complementary scenarios: population extinction and population survival; in the former a population gets extinct after maintaining a long-lived metastable state, whereas in the latter a population proliferates despite undergoing a deterministic drift towards extinction. In both models reproduction occurs in bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. In the extinction problem, we show that bursty reproduction broadens the quasi-stationary distribution of population sizes in the metastable state, which results in an exponential decrease of the mean time to extinction. In the survival problem, bursty reproduction yields an exponential increase in survival probability of the population. Close to the bifurcation limit our analytical results simplify considerably and are shown to depend solely on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our formalism is demonstrated on several realistic distributions which all compare well with numerical Monte-Carlo simulations.
We develop a new perturbation method for studying quasi-neutral competition in a broad class of stochastic competition models, and apply it to the analysis of fixation of competing strains in two epidemic models. The first model is a two-strain generalization of the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Here we extend previous results due to Parsons and Quince (2007), Parsons et al (2008) and Lin, Kim and Doering (2012). The second model, a two-strain generalization of the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with population turnover, has not been studied previously. In each of the two models, when the basic reproduction numbers of the two strains are identical, a system with an infinite population size approaches a point on the deterministic coexistence line (CL): a straight line of fixed points in the phase space of sub-population sizes. Shot noise drives one of the strain populations to fixation, and the other to extinction, on a time scale proportional to the total population size. Our perturbation method explicitly tracks the dynamics of the probability distribution of the sub-populations in the vicinity of the CL. We argue that, whereas the slow strain has a competitive advantage for mathematically typical initial conditions, it is the fast strain that is more likely to win in the important situation when a few infectives of both strains are introduced into a susceptible population.
In this paper I will review twenty years of work on the question: When is there coexistence in stochastic spatial models? The answer, announced in Durrett and Levin [Theor. Pop. Biol. 46 (1994) 363--394], and that we explain in this paper is that this can be determined by examining the mean-field ODE. There are a number of rigorous results in support of this picture, but we will state nine challenging and important open problems, most of which date from the 1990s.
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