No Arabic abstract
The median statistic has recently been discussed by Gott textit{et al.} as a more reliable alternative to the standard $chi^2$ likelihood analysis, in the sense of requiring fewer assumptions about the data and being almost as constraining. We apply this statistic to the currently available combined dataset of 92 distant type Ia supernovae, and also to a mock SNAP-class dataset. We find that the performances of the modified median and $chi^2$ statistics are comparable, particularly in the latter case. We further extend the work of Gott textit{et al.} by modifying the median statistic to account for the number and size of sequences of consecutive points above or below the median. We also comment on how the performance of the statistic depends on the choice of free parameters that one is estimating.
In this paper we compare the performances of the chi-square and median likelihood analysis in the determination of cosmological constraints using type Ia supernovae data. We perform a statistical analysis using the 307 supernovae of the Union 2 compilation of the Supernova Cosmology Project and find that the chi-square statistical analysis yields tighter cosmological constraints than the median statistic if only supernovae data is taken into account. We also show that when additional measurements from the Cosmic Microwave Background and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations are considered, the combined cosmological constraints are not strongly dependent on whether one applies the chi-square statistic or the median statistic to the supernovae data. This indicates that, when complementary information from other cosmological probes is taken into account, the performances of the chi-square and median statistics are very similar, demonstrating the robustness of the statistical analysis.
We present 637 low-redshift optical spectra collected by the Berkeley Supernova Ia Program (BSNIP) between 2009 and 2018, almost entirely with the Kast double spectrograph on the Shane 3~m telescope at Lick Observatory. We describe our automated spectral classification scheme and arrive at a final set of 626 spectra (of 242 objects) that are unambiguously classified as belonging to Type Ia supernovae (SNe~Ia). Of these, 70 spectra of 30 objects are classified as spectroscopically peculiar (i.e., not matching the spectral signatures of normal SNe~Ia) and 79 SNe~Ia (covered by 328 spectra) have complementary photometric coverage. The median SN in our final set has one epoch of spectroscopy, has a redshift of 0.0208 (with a low of 0.0007 and high of 0.1921), and is first observed spectroscopically 1.1 days after maximum light. The constituent spectra are of high quality, with a median signal-to-noise ratio of 31.8 pixel$^{-1}$, and have broad wavelength coverage, with $sim 95%$ covering at least 3700--9800~AA. We analyze our dataset, focusing on quantitative measurements (e.g., velocities, pseudo-equivalent widths) of the evolution of prominent spectral features in the available early-time and late-time spectra. The data are available to the community, and we encourage future studies to incorporate our spectra in their analyses.
The mode of explosive burning in Type Ia SNe remains an outstanding problem. It is generally thought to begin as a subsonic deflagration, but this may transition into a supersonic detonation (the DDT). We argue that this transition leads to a breakout shock, which would provide the first unambiguous evidence that DDTs occur. Its main features are a hard X-ray flash (~20 keV) lasting ~0.01 s with a total radiated energy of ~10^{40} ergs, followed by a cooling tail. This creates a distinct feature in the visual light curve, which is separate from the nickel decay. This cooling tail has a maximum absolute visual magnitude of M_V = -9 to -10 at approximately 1 day, which depends most sensitively on the white dwarf radius at the time of the DDT. As the thermal diffusion wave moves in, the composition of these surface layers may be imprinted as spectral features, which would help to discern between SN Ia progenitor models. Since this feature should accompany every SNe Ia, future deep surveys (e.g., m=24) will see it out to a distance of approximately 80 Mpc, giving a maximum rate of ~60/yr. Archival data sets can also be used to study the early rise dictated by the shock heating (at about 20 days before maximum B-band light). A similar and slightly brighter event may also accompany core bounce during the accretion induced collapse to a neutron star, but with a lower occurrence rate.
In the next decade Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) will be used to test theories predicting changes in the Dark Energy equation of state with time. Ultimately this requires a dedicated space mission like JDEM. SNe Ia are mature cosmological probes --- their limitations are well characterized, and a path to improvement is clear. Dominant systematic errors include photometric calibration, selection effects, reddening, and population-dependent differences. Building on past lessons, well-controlled new surveys are poised to make strides in these areas: the Palomar Transient Factory, Skymapper, La Silla QUEST, Pan-STARRS, the Dark Energy Survey, LSST, and JDEM. They will obviate historical calibrations and selection biases, and allow comparisons via large subsamples. Some systematics follow from our ignorance of SN Ia progenitors, which there is hope of determining with SN Ia rate studies from 0<z<4. Aside from cosmology, SNe Ia regulate galactic and cluster chemical evolution, inform stellar evolution, and are laboratories for extreme physics. Essential probes of SNe Ia in these contexts include spectroscopy from the UV to the IR, X-ray cluster and SN remnant observations, spectropolarimetry, and advanced theoretical studies. While there are an abundance of discovery facilities planned, there is a deficit of follow-up resources. Living in the systematics era demands deep understanding rather than larger statistics. NOAO ReSTAR initiative to build 2-4m telescopes would provide necessary follow-up capability. Finally, to fully exploit LSST, well-matched wide-field spectroscopic capabilities are desirable.
We present a measurement of the rate of distant Type Ia supernovae derived using 4 large subsets of data from the Supernova Cosmology Project. Within this fiducial sample, which surveyed about 12 square degrees, thirty-eight supernovae were detected at redshifts 0.25--0.85. In a spatially-flat cosmological model consistent with the results obtained by the Supernova Cosmology Project, we derive a rest-frame Type Ia supernova rate at a mean redshift $zsimeq0.55$ of $1.53 {^{+0.28}_{-0.25}} {^{+0.32}_{-0.31}} 10^{-4} h^3 {rm Mpc}^{-3} {rm yr}^{-1}$ or $0.58 {^{+0.10}_{-0.09}} {^{+0.10}_{-0.09}} h^2 {rm SNu}$ (1 SNu = 1 supernova per century per $10^{10}$Lbsun), where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second includes systematic effects. The dependence of the rate on the assumed cosmological parameters is studied and the redshift dependence of the rate per unit comoving volume is contrasted with local estimates in the context of possible cosmic star formation histories and progenitor models.