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Register a new userAdding Uncertainty to Neural Network Regression Tasks in the Geosciences
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A simple method for adding uncertainty to neural network regression tasks via estimation of a general probability distribution is described. The methodology supports estimation of heteroscedastic, asymmetric uncertainties by a simple modification of the network output and loss function. Method performance is demonstrated with a simple one dimensional data set and then applied to a more complex regression task using synthetic climate data.
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Neural networks have become increasingly prevalent within the geosciences, although a common limitation of their usage has been a lack of methods to interpret what the networks learn and how they make decisions. As such, neural networks have often been used within the geosciences to most accurately identify a desired output given a set of inputs, with the interpretation of what the network learns used as a secondary metric to ensure the network is making the right decision for the right reason. Neural network interpretation techniques have become more advanced in recent years, however, and we therefore propose that the ultimate objective of using a neural network can also be the interpretation of what the network has learned rather than the output itself. We show that the interpretation of neural networks can enable the discovery of scientifically meaningful connections within geoscientific data. In particular, we use two methods for neural network interpretation called backwards optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, both of which project the decision pathways of a network back onto the original input dimensions. To the best of our knowledge, LRP has not yet been applied to geoscientific research, and we believe it has great potential in this area. We show how these interpretation techniques can be used to reliably infer scientifically meaningful information from neural networks by applying them to common climate patterns. These results suggest that combining interpretable neural networks with novel scientific hypotheses will open the door to many new avenues in neural network-related geoscience research.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are capable of modeling the temporal dynamics of complex sequential information. However, the structures of existing RNN neurons mainly focus on controlling the contributions of current and historical information but do not explore the different importance levels of different elements in an input vector of a time slot. We propose adding a simple yet effective Element-wiseAttention Gate (EleAttG) to an RNN block (e.g., all RNN neurons in a network layer) that empowers the RNN neurons to have the attentiveness capability. For an RNN block, an EleAttG is added to adaptively modulate the input by assigning different levels of importance, i.e., attention, to each element/dimension of the input. We refer to an RNN block equipped with an EleAttG as an EleAtt-RNN block. Specifically, the modulation of the input is content adaptive and is performed at fine granularity, being element-wise rather than input-wise. The proposed EleAttG, as an additional fundamental unit, is general and can be applied to any RNN structures, e.g., standard RNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), or Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed EleAtt-RNN by applying it to the action recognition tasks on both 3D human skeleton data and RGB videos. Experiments show that adding attentiveness through EleAttGs to RNN blocks significantly boosts the power of RNNs.
Over the last couple of years, machine learning parameterizations have emerged as a potential way to improve the representation of sub-grid processes in Earth System Models (ESMs). So far, all studies were based on the same three-step approach: first a training dataset was created from a high-resolution simulation, then a machine learning algorithm was fitted to this dataset, before the trained algorithm was implemented in the ESM. The resulting online simulations were frequently plagued by instabilities and biases. Here, coupled online learning is proposed as a way to combat these issues. Coupled learning can be seen as a second training stage in which the pretrained machine learning parameterization, specifically a neural network, is run in parallel with a high-resolution simulation. The high-resolution simulation is kept in sync with the neural network-driven ESM through constant nudging. This enables the neural network to learn from the tendencies that the high-resolution simulation would produce if it experienced the states the neural network creates. The concept is illustrated using the Lorenz 96 model, where coupled learning is able to recover the true parameterizations. Further, detailed algorithms for the implementation of coupled learning in 3D cloud-resolving models and the super parameterization framework are presented. Finally, outstanding challenges and issues not resolved by this approach are discussed.
Neural module networks (NMN) have achieved success in image-grounded tasks such as Visual Question Answering (VQA) on synthetic images. However, very limited work on NMN has been studied in the video-grounded language tasks. These tasks extend the complexity of traditional visual tasks with the additional visual temporal variance. Motivated by recent NMN approaches on image-grounded tasks, we introduce Video-grounded Neural Module Network (VGNMN) to model the information retrieval process in video-grounded language tasks as a pipeline of neural modules. VGNMN first decomposes all language components to explicitly resolve any entity references and detect corresponding action-based inputs from the question. The detected entities and actions are used as parameters to instantiate neural module networks and extract visual cues from the video. Our experiments show that VGNMN can achieve promising performance on two video-grounded language tasks: video QA and video-grounded dialogues.
Artificial neural-networks have the potential to emulate cloud processes with higher accuracy than the semi-empirical emulators currently used in climate models. However, neural-network models do not intrinsically conserve energy and mass, which is an obstacle to using them for long-term climate predictions. Here, we propose two methods to enforce linear conservation laws in neural-network emulators of physical models: Constraining (1) the loss function or (2) the architecture of the network itself. Applied to the emulation of explicitly-resolved cloud processes in a prototype multi-scale climate model, we show that architecture constraints can enforce conservation laws to satisfactory numerical precision, while all constraints help the neural-network better generalize to conditions outside of its training set, such as global warming.
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