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Register a new userProjection Of Temperature And Precipitation For 2020-2100 For Tehran Region Using Post-processing Of General Circulation Models Output And Artificial Neural Network Approach
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Multi-model projections in climate studies are performed to quantify uncertainty and improve reliability in climate projections. The challenging issue is that there is no unique way to obtain performance metrics, nor is there any consensus about which method would be the best method of combining models. The goal of this study was to investigate whether combining climate model projections by artificial neural network (ANN) approach could improve climate projections and therefore reduce the range of uncertainty. The equally-weighted model averaging (the mean model) and single climate model projections (the best model) were also considered as references for the ANN combination approach. Simulations of present-day climate and future projections from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for temperature and precipitation were employed. Results indicated that combining GCM projections by the ANN combination approach significantly improved the simulations of present-day temperature and precipitation than the best model and the mean model. The identity of the best model changed between the two variables and among stations. Therefore, there was not a unique model which could represent the best model for all variables and/or stations over the study region. The mean model was also not skillful in giving a reliable projection of historical climate. Simulation of temperature indicated that the ANN approach had the best skill at simulating present-day monthly means than other approaches in all stations. Simulation of present-day precipitation, however, indicated that the ANN approach was not the best approach in all stations although it performed better than the mean model. Multi-model projections of future climate conditions performed by the ANN approach projected an increase in temperature and reduction in precipitation in all stations and for all scenarios.
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In order to investigate the scope of uncertainty in projections of GCMs for Tehran province, a multi-model projection composed of 15 models is employed. The projected changes in minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation under the A1B scenario for Tehran province are investigated for 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. GCM projections for the study region are downscaled by the LARS-WG5 model. Uncertainty among the projections is evaluated from three perspectives: large-scale climate scenarios downscaled values, and mean decadal changes. 15 GCMs unanimously project an increasing trend in the temperature for the study region. Also, uncertainty in the projections for the summer months is greater than projection uncertainty for other months. The mean absolute surface temperature increase for the three periods is projected to be about 0.8{deg}C, 2.4{deg}C, and 3.8{deg}C in the summers, respectively. The uncertainty of the multi-model projections for precipitation in summer seasons, and the radiation in the springs and falls is higher than other seasons for the study region. Model projections indicate that for the three future periods and relative to their baseline period, springtime precipitation will decrease about 5%, 10%, and 20%, and springtime radiation will increase about 0.5%, 1.5%, and 3%, respectively. The projected mean decadal changes indicate an increase in temperature and radiation and a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the performance of the GCMs in simulating the baseline climate by the MOTP method does not indicate any distinct pattern among the GCMs for the study region.
Any type of non-buoyant material in the ocean is transported horizontally by currents during its sinking journey. This lateral transport can be far from negligible for small sinking velocities. To estimate its magnitude and direction, the material is often modelled as a set of Lagrangian particles advected by current velocities that are obtained from Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). State-of-the-art OGCMs are strongly eddying, similar to the real ocean, providing results with a spatial resolution on the order of 10 km on a daily frequency. While the importance of eddies in OGCMs is well-appreciated in the physical oceanographic community, other marine research communities may not. To demonstrate how much the absence of mesoscale features in low-resolution models influences the Lagrangian particle transport, we simulate the transport of sinking Lagrangian particles using low- and high-resolution global OGCMs, and assess the lateral transport differences resulting from the difference in spatial and temporal model resolution. We find major differences between the transport in the non-eddying OGCM and in the eddying OGCM. Addition of stochastic noise to the particle trajectories in the non-eddying OGCM parameterises the effect of eddies well in some cases. The effect of a coarser temporal resolution (5-daily) is smaller compared to a coarser spatial resolution (0.1$^{circ}$ versus 1$^{circ}$ horizontally). We recommend to use sinking Lagrangian particles, representing e.g. marine snow, microplankton or sinking plastic, only with velocity fields from eddying OGCMs, requiring high-resolution models in e.g. paleoceanographic studies. To increase the accessibility of our particle trace simulations, we launch planktondrift.science.uu.nl, an online tool to reconstruct the surface origin of sedimentary particles in a specific location.
Lightning casualties cause tremendous loss to life and property. However, very lately lightning has been considered as one of the major natural calamities which is now studied or monitored with proper instrumentation. The lightning characteristics over India have been studying by using daily data low resolution time series and monthly data high resolution monthly climatology. We have used ANN time series method (a neural network) to analyze the time series and defined which one will be the best predictor of lightning over India. The time series of lightning is output(dependent) and input (independent) are k-index, AOD, Cape etc. The Gaussian process regression, support vector machine, regression trees and linear regression defined the input variables. Which show approximately linear relation.
Grid (1{deg} latitude x 1{deg} longitude) level daily rainfall data over India from June to September for the years 1951 to 2007, generated by India Meteorological Department, was analyzed to build monthly time series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Analysis of SPI was done to study the spatial and temporal patterns of drought occurrence in the country. Geographic spread of SPI derived Area under Dryness (AUD) in different years revealed the uniqueness of 2002 drought with wide spread dryness in July. Mann-Kendal trend analysis and moving average based trends performed on AUD indicated increasing trend in July. The area under moderate drought frequency has increased in the most recent decade. Ranking of years based on Drought Persistency Score (DPS) indicated that the year 1987 was the severe-most drought year in the country. The results of the study have revealed various aspects of drought climatology in India. A similar analysis with the SPI of finer spatial resolution and relating it to crop production would be useful in quantifying the impact of drought in economic terms.
Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the noise of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to identify the year of input maps of temperature and precipitation from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as reliable indicators of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal-to-noise ratios and multi-linear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.
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