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How to strategically allocate the available vaccines is a crucial issue for pandemic control. In this work, we propose a mathematical framework for optimal stabilizing vaccine allocation, where our goal is to send the infections to zero as soon as possible with a fixed number of vaccine doses. This framework allows us to efficiently compute the optimal vaccine allocation policy for general epidemic spread models including SIS/SIR/SEIR and a new model of COVID-19 transmissions. By fitting the real data in New York State to our framework, we found that the optimal stabilizing vaccine allocation policy suggests offering vaccines priority to locations where there are more susceptible people and where the residents spend longer time outside the home. Besides, we found that offering vaccines priority to young adults (20-29) and middle-age adults (20-44) can minimize the cumulative infected cases and the death cases. Moreover, we compared our method with five age-stratified strategies in cite{bubar2021model} based on their epidemics model. We also found its better to offer vaccine priorities to young people to curb the disease and minimize the deaths when the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is moderately above one, which describes the most world during COVID-19. Such phenomenon has been ignored in cite{bubar2021model}.
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As a common strategy of contagious disease containment, lockdown will inevitably weaken the economy. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic underscores the trade-off arising from public health and economic cost. An optimal lockdown policy to resolve this trade-off is highly desired. Here we propose a mathematical framework of pandemic control through an optimal non-uniform lockdown, where our goal is to reduce the economic activity as little as possible while decreasing the number of infected individuals at a prescribed rate. This framework allows us to efficiently compute the optimal lockdown policy for general epidemic spread models, including both the classical SIS/SIR/SEIR models and a new model of COVID-19 transmissions. We demonstrate the power of this framework by analyzing publicly available data of inter-county travel frequencies to analyze a model of COVID-19 spread in the 62 counties of New York State. We find that an optimal lockdown based on epidemic status in April 2020 would have reduced economic activity more stringently outside of New York City compared to within it, even though the epidemic was much more prevalent in New York City at that point. Such a counterintuitive result highlights the intricacies of pandemic control and sheds light on future lockdown policy design.
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